Basketball · Spain Liga ACB · 27/09, 12:30

Prediction: San Pablo Burgos vs Baskonia

Prediction summary

Estimated points

185.9Total

San Pablo Burgos92.6

Baskonia93.3

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

48% 52%

San Pablo Burgos Baskonia

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

San Pablo Burgos 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLWWLW

Baskonia 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWWLL

Head-to-head

San Pablo Burgos 3–3 Baskonia (6 last)

San Pablo Burgos107-96Baskonia
Baskonia89-77San Pablo Burgos
San Pablo Burgos90-88Baskonia
San Pablo Burgos62-78Baskonia
Baskonia80-69San Pablo Burgos
Baskonia83-94San Pablo Burgos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Pablo Burgos 1531 · Baskonia 1503

	San Pablo Burgos	Baskonia
Our model	66%	34%
Market	43%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 185.9 points · Bet365 line 177.5 · +8.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points185.9San Pablo Burgos 92.6 · Baskonia 93.3

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	San Pablo Burgos	Baskonia
Points F\|A (Last 10)	92.8 / 92.8	91.6 / 85.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	89.4 / 91	83.2 / 84.2
Est. result	93	93

Est. total185.9

Line O/U177.5

Diff.8.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.20

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.5)1.87

2 (-2.5)1.87

Line ⓘ

Over 177.51.87

Under 177.51.87

Diff.: 3.65 · Est. total: 181.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.5%

Time*	1	2
13:14 +43’	2.20	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · San Pablo Burgos 3–0–3 Baskonia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Spain Liga ACB	San Pablo Burgos	107-96	Baskonia
27/12/25 Spain Liga ACB	Baskonia	89-77	San Pablo Burgos
12/09/25 Club Friendlies	San Pablo Burgos	90-88	Baskonia
10/04/22 Spain Liga ACB	San Pablo Burgos	62-78	Baskonia
23/01/22 Spain Liga ACB	Baskonia	80-69	San Pablo Burgos
18/04/21 Spain Liga ACB	Baskonia	83-94	San Pablo Burgos

Standings · Spain Liga ACB

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Zaragoza	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Baskonia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Girona	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Manresa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	BC Andorra	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bilbao	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tenerife	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Breogan	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Coruna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Unicaja Malaga	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	San Pablo Burgos	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Joventut	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Forca Lleida	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Monbus Obradoiro	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UCAM Murcia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Pablo Burgos	Baskonia
Granada	110-105 W	121-85 W
Joventut	79-86 L	88-96 L
Unicaja Malaga	97-90 W	92-89 W
Barcelona	76-91 L	92-95 L
Breogan	94-99 L	112-84 W
Real Madrid	78-94 L	88-83 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Baskonia (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Pablo Burgos

WLLWWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
29/05	Granada Spain Liga ACB	110-105	W
24/05	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	79-86	L
17/05	BC Andorra Spain Liga ACB	85-83	W
14/05	Unicaja Malaga Spain Liga ACB	97-90	W
09/05	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	76-91	L
02/05	Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB	99-91	W
26/04	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	101-94	W
19/04	Breogan Spain Liga ACB	94-99	L
12/04	Real Madrid Spain Liga ACB	78-94	L
04/04	Gran Canaria Spain Liga ACB	109-95	W

Baskonia

LWWWWWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
07/06	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	88-96	L
05/06	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	63-82	L
03/06	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	85-71	W
29/05	Unicaja Malaga Spain Liga ACB	92-89	W
27/05	Real Madrid Spain Liga ACB	88-83	W
17/05	Granada Spain Liga ACB	121-85	W
14/05	UCAM Murcia Spain Liga ACB	87-80	W
10/05	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	88-86	W
03/05	Breogan Spain Liga ACB	112-84	W
26/04	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	92-95	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Pablo Burgos vs Baskonia?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (San Pablo Burgos 48% · Baskonia 52%).

How many points are expected in San Pablo Burgos vs Baskonia?

The model estimates 185.9 total points (San Pablo Burgos 92.6 · Baskonia 93.3).