Basketball · Spain Liga ACB · 04/10, 12:00

Prediction: Forca Lleida vs San Pablo Burgos

Team pages: Forca Lleida · San Pablo Burgos

Prediction summary

Estimated points

185.7Total

Forca Lleida94.6

San Pablo Burgos91.1

1X2

60% 40%

Forca Lleida San Pablo Burgos

Recent form · 10 last

Forca Lleida 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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San Pablo Burgos 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Forca Lleida 3–3 San Pablo Burgos (6 last)

San Pablo Burgos99-91Forca Lleida
Forca Lleida73-72San Pablo Burgos
San Pablo Burgos77-80Forca Lleida
Forca Lleida77-72San Pablo Burgos
San Pablo Burgos79-66Forca Lleida
San Pablo Burgos90-78Forca Lleida

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Forca Lleida 1530 · San Pablo Burgos 1501

	Forca Lleida	San Pablo Burgos
Our model	66%	34%
Market	58%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 185.7 points · Bet365 line 183.5 · +2.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points185.7Forca Lleida 94.6 · San Pablo Burgos 91.1

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Forca Lleida	San Pablo Burgos
Points F\|A (Last 10)	88.4 / 97.6	91.6 / 93.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	90 / 103.6	93.6 / 92.4
Est. result	95	91

Est. total185.7

Line O/U183.5

Diff.2.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.63

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3)1.87

2 (+3)1.87

Line ⓘ

Over 183.51.87

Under 183.51.87

Diff.: 1.85 · Est. total: 185.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.63 → 1.63	Bet365 1.63
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6%

Time*	1	2
21:09 +3’	1.63	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Forca Lleida 3–0–3 San Pablo Burgos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Spain Liga ACB	San Pablo Burgos	99-91	Forca Lleida
24/01/26 Spain Liga ACB	Forca Lleida	73-72	San Pablo Burgos
08/06/24 Spain Primera FEB	San Pablo Burgos	77-80	Forca Lleida
13/03/24 Spain Primera FEB	Forca Lleida	77-72	San Pablo Burgos
14/10/23 Spain Primera FEB	San Pablo Burgos	79-66	Forca Lleida
05/05/23 Spain Primera FEB	San Pablo Burgos	90-78	Forca Lleida

Standings · Spain Liga ACB

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Barcelona	1	1	0	119	101
2	Bilbao	1	1	0	107	92
3	Girona	1	1	0	84	77
4	Breogan	1	1	0	110	104
5	Forca Lleida	1	1	0	105	100
6	Monbus Obradoiro	1	1	0	90	85
7	Real Madrid	1	1	0	89	87
8	Baskonia	1	1	0	98	97
9	Zaragoza	1	1	0	81	80
10	San Pablo Burgos	1	0	1	97	98
11	Tenerife	1	0	1	80	81
12	Unicaja Malaga	1	0	1	87	89
13	Valencia	1	0	1	100	105
14	BC Andorra	1	0	1	85	90
15	Joventut	1	0	1	104	110
16	UCAM Murcia	1	0	1	77	84
17	Manresa	1	0	1	92	107
18	Coruna	1	0	1	101	119

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Forca Lleida	San Pablo Burgos
BC Andorra	88-116 L	85-83 W
Breogan	87-114 L	94-99 L
Unicaja Malaga	72-91 L	97-90 W
Barcelona	90-80 W	76-91 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: San Pablo Burgos (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Forca Lleida

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
27/09	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	105-100	W
29/05	UCAM Murcia Spain Liga ACB	95-116	L
24/05	BC Andorra Spain Liga ACB	88-116	L
17/05	Gran Canaria Spain Liga ACB	75-72	W
13/05	Breogan Spain Liga ACB	87-114	L
10/05	Bilbao Spain Liga ACB	90-81	W
02/05	San Pablo Burgos Spain Liga ACB	91-99	L
25/04	Unicaja Malaga Spain Liga ACB	72-91	L
19/04	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	90-80	W
11/04	Zaragoza Spain Liga ACB	91-107	L

San Pablo Burgos

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
27/09	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	97-98	L
29/05	Granada Spain Liga ACB	110-105	W
24/05	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	79-86	L
17/05	BC Andorra Spain Liga ACB	85-83	W
14/05	Unicaja Malaga Spain Liga ACB	97-90	W
09/05	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	76-91	L
02/05	Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB	99-91	W
26/04	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	101-94	W
19/04	Breogan Spain Liga ACB	94-99	L
12/04	Real Madrid Spain Liga ACB	78-94	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Forca Lleida vs San Pablo Burgos?

Our model gives 60% to Forca Lleida.

How many points are expected in Forca Lleida vs San Pablo Burgos?

The model estimates 185.7 total points (Forca Lleida 94.6 · San Pablo Burgos 91.1).