Basketball · Spain Liga ACB · 04/10, 19:00

Prediction: UCAM Murcia vs Barcelona

Team pages: UCAM Murcia · Barcelona

Prediction summary

Estimated points

180.9Total

UCAM Murcia89.6

Barcelona91.3

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

45% 55%

UCAM Murcia Barcelona

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

UCAM Murcia 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Barcelona 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

UCAM Murcia 3–3 Barcelona (6 last)

UCAM Murcia76-100Barcelona
Barcelona87-90UCAM Murcia
UCAM Murcia68-91Barcelona
Barcelona91-85UCAM Murcia
UCAM Murcia84-83Barcelona
Barcelona78-81UCAM Murcia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UCAM Murcia 1521 · Barcelona 1594

	UCAM Murcia	Barcelona
Our model	52%	48%
Market	43%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 180.9 points · Bet365 line 174.5 · +6.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points180.9UCAM Murcia 89.6 · Barcelona 91.3

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	UCAM Murcia	Barcelona
Points F\|A (Last 10)	90.3 / 90.9	94 / 90.9
Points F\|A (Last 5)	85.4 / 91.4	94.2 / 102.2
Est. result	90	91

Est. total180.9

Line O/U174.5

Diff.6.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.20

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.5)1.87

2 (-2.5)1.87

Line ⓘ

Over 174.51.87

Under 174.51.87

Diff.: 8.55 · Est. total: 183.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.5%

Time*	1	2
20:00 +7’	2.20	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UCAM Murcia 3–0–3 Barcelona

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Spain Liga ACB	UCAM Murcia	76-100	Barcelona
04/06/26 Spain Liga ACB	Barcelona	87-90	UCAM Murcia
02/06/26 Spain Liga ACB	UCAM Murcia	68-91	Barcelona
20/02/26 Spain Copa del Rey	Barcelona	91-85	UCAM Murcia
01/02/26 Spain Liga ACB	UCAM Murcia	84-83	Barcelona
02/11/25 Spain Liga ACB	Barcelona	78-81	UCAM Murcia

Standings · Spain Liga ACB

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Barcelona	1	1	0	119	101
2	Bilbao	1	1	0	107	92
3	Girona	1	1	0	84	77
4	Breogan	1	1	0	110	104
5	Forca Lleida	1	1	0	105	100
6	Monbus Obradoiro	1	1	0	90	85
7	Real Madrid	1	1	0	89	87
8	Baskonia	1	1	0	98	97
9	Zaragoza	1	1	0	81	80
10	San Pablo Burgos	1	0	1	97	98
11	Tenerife	1	0	1	80	81
12	Unicaja Malaga	1	0	1	87	89
13	Valencia	1	0	1	100	105
14	BC Andorra	1	0	1	85	90
15	Joventut	1	0	1	104	110
16	UCAM Murcia	1	0	1	77	84
17	Manresa	1	0	1	92	107
18	Coruna	1	0	1	101	119

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UCAM Murcia

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
27/09	Girona Spain Liga ACB	77-84	L
06/06	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	76-100	L
04/06	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	90-87	W
02/06	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	68-91	L
29/05	Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB	116-95	W
24/05	Zaragoza Spain Liga ACB	100-90	W
17/05	Unicaja Malaga Spain Liga ACB	87-69	W
14/05	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	80-87	L
09/05	Girona Spain Liga ACB	86-75	W
03/05	Real Madrid Spain Liga ACB	123-131	L

Barcelona

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
26/09	Coruna Spain Liga ACB	119-101	W
24/06	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	84-108	L
22/06	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	80-88	L
20/06	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	75-102	L
18/06	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	113-112	W
13/06	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	85-76	W
11/06	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	97-89	W
09/06	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	100-67	W
06/06	UCAM Murcia Spain Liga ACB	100-76	W
04/06	UCAM Murcia Spain Liga ACB	87-90	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UCAM Murcia vs Barcelona?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (UCAM Murcia 45% · Barcelona 55%).

How many points are expected in UCAM Murcia vs Barcelona?

The model estimates 180.9 total points (UCAM Murcia 89.6 · Barcelona 91.3).