Basketball · Spain Liga ACB · 26/09, 18:00

Prediction: Bilbao vs Manresa

Prediction summary

Estimated points

173.2Total

Bilbao89.9

Manresa83.3

1X2

68% 32%

Bilbao Manresa

Recent form · 10 last

Bilbao 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Manresa 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Bilbao 2–4 Manresa (6 last)

Bilbao80-84Manresa
Manresa79-77Bilbao
Manresa89-74Bilbao
Bilbao88-73Manresa
Manresa90-81Bilbao
Bilbao74-54Manresa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bilbao 1505 · Manresa 1543

	Bilbao	Manresa
Our model	57%	43%
Market	70%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 173.2 points · Bet365 line 172.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points173.2Bilbao 89.9 · Manresa 83.3

Match keys

Bilbao is a clear favourite (68% market).
H2H favours Manresa: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Bilbao	Manresa
Points F\|A (Last 10)	80.5 / 85	90.7 / 87.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	81.4 / 84.2	91 / 85.6
Est. result	90	83

Est. total173.2

Line O/U172.5

Diff.0.7

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.34

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-5.5)1.77

2 (+5.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 172.51.87

Under 172.51.87

Diff.: 0.6 · Est. total: 171.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.34 → 1.34	Bet365 1.34
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.7%

Time*	1	2
12:41 +12’	1.34	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bilbao 2–0–4 Manresa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Spain Liga ACB	Bilbao	80-84	Manresa
01/11/25 Spain Liga ACB	Manresa	79-77	Bilbao
08/02/25 Spain Liga ACB	Manresa	89-74	Bilbao
22/12/24 Spain Liga ACB	Bilbao	88-73	Manresa
09/05/24 Spain Liga ACB	Manresa	90-81	Bilbao
07/01/24 Spain Liga ACB	Bilbao	74-54	Manresa

Standings · Spain Liga ACB

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Zaragoza	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Baskonia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Girona	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Manresa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	BC Andorra	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bilbao	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tenerife	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Breogan	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Coruna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Unicaja Malaga	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	San Pablo Burgos	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Joventut	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Forca Lleida	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Monbus Obradoiro	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UCAM Murcia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bilbao	Manresa
Valencia	71-88 L	104-102 W
Girona	86-80 W	79-74 W
Real Madrid	88-82 W	94-87 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Manresa (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bilbao

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
05/06	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	71-88	L
03/06	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	80-83	L
29/05	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	87-82	W
24/05	Girona Spain Liga ACB	86-80	W
17/05	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	83-88	L
14/05	Real Madrid Spain Liga ACB	88-82	W
10/05	Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB	81-90	L
03/05	Granada Spain Liga ACB	88-83	W
18/04	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	80-84	L
12/04	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	61-90	L

Manresa

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
29/05	Real Madrid Spain Liga ACB	94-87	W
23/05	Gran Canaria Spain Liga ACB	87-80	W
16/05	Zaragoza Spain Liga ACB	101-83	W
12/05	Girona Spain Liga ACB	79-74	W
10/05	BC Andorra Spain Liga ACB	94-104	L
03/05	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	104-102	W
26/04	San Pablo Burgos Spain Liga ACB	94-101	L
18/04	Bilbao Spain Liga ACB	84-80	W
12/04	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	87-77	W
05/04	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	83-88	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bilbao vs Manresa?

Our model gives 68% to Bilbao.

How many points are expected in Bilbao vs Manresa?

The model estimates 173.2 total points (Bilbao 89.9 · Manresa 83.3).