Basketball · Spain Liga ACB · 27/09, 12:00

Prediction: Breogan vs Joventut

Prediction summary

Estimated points

181.7Total

Breogan89.8

Joventut91.9

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

44% 56%

Breogan Joventut

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Breogan 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWWWLL

Joventut 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWWLLL

Head-to-head

Breogan 3–3 Joventut (6 last)

Breogan93-86Joventut
Joventut83-75Breogan
Breogan65-82Joventut
Joventut70-76Breogan
Joventut78-70Breogan
Breogan85-77Joventut

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Breogan 1542 · Joventut 1544

	Breogan	Joventut
Our model	62%	38%
Market	39%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 181.7 points · Bet365 line 172.5 · +9.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points181.7Breogan 89.8 · Joventut 91.9

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Breogan	Joventut
Points F\|A (Last 10)	94.8 / 95.2	87.5 / 86.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	97.4 / 91.2	89.2 / 89.2
Est. result	90	92

Est. total181.7

Line O/U172.5

Diff.9.2

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.40

21.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+3.5)1.87

2 (-3.5)1.87

Line ⓘ

Over 172.51.87

Under 172.51.87

Diff.: 9.45 · Est. total: 181.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
2	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6%

Time*	1	2
12:55 +4’	2.40	1.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Breogan 3–0–3 Joventut

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Spain Liga ACB	Breogan	93-86	Joventut
27/12/25 Spain Liga ACB	Joventut	83-75	Breogan
26/04/25 Spain Liga ACB	Breogan	65-82	Joventut
19/10/24 Spain Liga ACB	Joventut	70-76	Breogan
02/03/24 Spain Liga ACB	Joventut	78-70	Breogan
11/11/23 Spain Liga ACB	Breogan	85-77	Joventut

Standings · Spain Liga ACB

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Zaragoza	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Baskonia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Girona	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Manresa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	BC Andorra	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bilbao	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tenerife	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Breogan	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Coruna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Unicaja Malaga	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	San Pablo Burgos	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Joventut	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Forca Lleida	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Monbus Obradoiro	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UCAM Murcia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Breogan	Joventut
Unicaja Malaga	83-101 L	95-74 W
Girona	95-76 W	77-82 L
Baskonia	84-112 L	96-88 W
San Pablo Burgos	99-94 W	86-79 W
Valencia	88-105 L	75-87 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Joventut (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Breogan

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
29/05	Zaragoza Spain Liga ACB	94-95	L
23/05	Unicaja Malaga Spain Liga ACB	83-101	L
16/05	Girona Spain Liga ACB	95-76	W
13/05	Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB	114-87	W
10/05	Real Madrid Spain Liga ACB	101-97	W
03/05	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	84-112	L
26/04	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	93-86	W
19/04	San Pablo Burgos Spain Liga ACB	99-94	W
11/04	BC Andorra Spain Liga ACB	97-99	L
05/04	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	88-105	L

Joventut

WWWLLWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
14/06	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	75-87	L
12/06	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	76-90	L
10/06	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	117-118	L
07/06	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	96-88	W
05/06	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	82-63	W
03/06	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	71-85	L
29/05	Girona Spain Liga ACB	77-82	L
26/05	Unicaja Malaga Spain Liga ACB	95-74	W
24/05	San Pablo Burgos Spain Liga ACB	86-79	W
20/05	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	100-98	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Breogan vs Joventut?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Breogan 44% · Joventut 56%).

How many points are expected in Breogan vs Joventut?

The model estimates 181.7 total points (Breogan 89.8 · Joventut 91.9).