Basketball · Spain Liga ACB · 27/09, 17:00

Prediction: Girona vs UCAM Murcia

Prediction summary

Estimated points

175Total

Girona86.8

UCAM Murcia88.2

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

46% 54%

Girona UCAM Murcia

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Girona 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLLLLW

UCAM Murcia 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWWLWL

Head-to-head

Girona 2–4 UCAM Murcia (6 last)

UCAM Murcia86-75Girona
Girona71-93UCAM Murcia
UCAM Murcia64-76Girona
Girona75-82UCAM Murcia
UCAM Murcia81-73Girona
Girona82-76UCAM Murcia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Girona 1443 · UCAM Murcia 1538

	Girona	UCAM Murcia
Our model	49%	51%
Market	45%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 175 points · Bet365 line 175.5 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points175Girona 86.8 · UCAM Murcia 88.2

Match keys

H2H favours UCAM Murcia: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Girona	UCAM Murcia
Points F\|A (Last 10)	83.3 / 86.9	91.2 / 90.5
Points F\|A (Last 5)	77.4 / 84.6	90 / 92.6
Est. result	87	88

Est. total175

Line O/U175.5

Diff.0.5

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.10

21.71

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.87

2 (-2)1.87

Line ⓘ

Over 175.51.87

Under 175.51.87

Diff.: 0.45 · Est. total: 175.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
2	1.71 → 1.71	Bet365 1.71

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6%

Time*	1	2
12:54 +7’	2.10	1.71

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Girona 2–0–4 UCAM Murcia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Spain Liga ACB	UCAM Murcia	86-75	Girona
11/10/25 Spain Liga ACB	Girona	71-93	UCAM Murcia
15/03/25 Spain Liga ACB	UCAM Murcia	64-76	Girona
26/10/24 Spain Liga ACB	Girona	75-82	UCAM Murcia
09/03/24 Spain Liga ACB	UCAM Murcia	81-73	Girona
28/10/23 Spain Liga ACB	Girona	82-76	UCAM Murcia

Standings · Spain Liga ACB

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Zaragoza	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Baskonia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Girona	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Manresa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	BC Andorra	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bilbao	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tenerife	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Breogan	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Coruna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Unicaja Malaga	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	San Pablo Burgos	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Joventut	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Forca Lleida	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Monbus Obradoiro	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UCAM Murcia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Girona	UCAM Murcia
Zaragoza	90-81 W	100-90 W
Tenerife	94-97 L	86-80 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: UCAM Murcia (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Girona

WLLLWLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
29/05	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	82-77	W
24/05	Bilbao Spain Liga ACB	80-86	L
16/05	Breogan Spain Liga ACB	76-95	L
12/05	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	74-79	L
09/05	UCAM Murcia Spain Liga ACB	75-86	L
02/05	Zaragoza Spain Liga ACB	90-81	W
25/04	Gran Canaria Spain Liga ACB	90-100	L
19/04	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	81-84	L
11/04	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	94-97	L
04/04	Granada Spain Liga ACB	91-84	W

UCAM Murcia

WLWLWWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
06/06	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	76-100	L
04/06	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	90-87	W
02/06	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	68-91	L
29/05	Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB	116-95	W
24/05	Zaragoza Spain Liga ACB	100-90	W
17/05	Unicaja Malaga Spain Liga ACB	87-69	W
14/05	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	80-87	L
09/05	Girona Spain Liga ACB	86-75	W
03/05	Real Madrid Spain Liga ACB	123-131	L
25/04	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	86-80	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Girona vs UCAM Murcia?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Girona 46% · UCAM Murcia 54%).

How many points are expected in Girona vs UCAM Murcia?

The model estimates 175 total points (Girona 86.8 · UCAM Murcia 88.2).