Basketball · Spain Liga ACB · 27/09, 19:00

Prediction: Real Madrid vs Unicaja Malaga

Prediction summary

Estimated points

181.6Total

Real Madrid94.9

Unicaja Malaga86.7

1X2

72% 28%

Real Madrid Unicaja Malaga

Recent form · 10 last

Real Madrid 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Unicaja Malaga 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Real Madrid 5–1 Unicaja Malaga (6 last)

Real Madrid100-70Unicaja Malaga
Unicaja Malaga92-96Real Madrid
Real Madrid91-82Unicaja Malaga
Unicaja Malaga82-89Real Madrid
Unicaja Malaga79-86Real Madrid
Unicaja Malaga86-84Real Madrid

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Madrid 1536 · Unicaja Malaga 1447

	Real Madrid	Unicaja Malaga
Our model	74%	26%
Market	71%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 181.6 points · Bet365 line 172.5 · +9.1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points181.6Real Madrid 94.9 · Unicaja Malaga 86.7

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Madrid (rating 1536 vs 1447).
Real Madrid is a clear favourite (72% market).
H2H favours Real Madrid: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Real Madrid	Unicaja Malaga
Points F\|A (Last 10)	96.7 / 95.3	84.8 / 89.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	96 / 94	84.6 / 90.8
Est. result	95	87

Est. total181.6

Line O/U172.5

Diff.9.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.32

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-7)1.87

2 (+7)1.87

Line ⓘ

Over 172.51.87

Under 172.51.87

Diff.: 10.7 · Est. total: 183.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.32▲	Bet365 1.32
2	3.70 → 3.30▼	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 5.9%

Time*	1	2
13:30 +29’	1.27	3.70
14:53 +2’	1.32▲	3.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Madrid 5–0–1 Unicaja Malaga

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/02/26 Spain Copa del Rey	Real Madrid	100-70	Unicaja Malaga
15/02/26 Spain Liga ACB	Unicaja Malaga	92-96	Real Madrid
28/12/25 Spain Liga ACB	Real Madrid	91-82	Unicaja Malaga
07/09/25 Club Friendlies	Unicaja Malaga	82-89	Real Madrid
17/06/25 Spain Liga ACB	Unicaja Malaga	79-86	Real Madrid
15/06/25 Spain Liga ACB	Unicaja Malaga	86-84	Real Madrid

Standings · Spain Liga ACB

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Zaragoza	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Baskonia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Girona	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Manresa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	BC Andorra	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bilbao	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tenerife	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Breogan	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Coruna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Unicaja Malaga	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	San Pablo Burgos	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Joventut	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Forca Lleida	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Monbus Obradoiro	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UCAM Murcia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Madrid	Unicaja Malaga
Baskonia	83-88 L	89-92 L
Joventut	81-89 L	74-95 L
Bilbao	82-88 L	74-90 L
Breogan	97-101 L	101-83 W
UCAM Murcia	131-123 W	69-87 L
Valencia	96-82 W	89-96 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Real Madrid (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Madrid

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
06/06	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	95-107	L
04/06	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	118-83	W
02/06	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	97-98	L
29/05	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	87-94	L
27/05	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	83-88	L
17/05	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	81-89	L
14/05	Bilbao Spain Liga ACB	82-88	L
10/05	Breogan Spain Liga ACB	97-101	L
03/05	UCAM Murcia Spain Liga ACB	131-123	W
25/04	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	96-82	W

Unicaja Malaga

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
29/05	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	89-92	L
26/05	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	74-95	L
23/05	Breogan Spain Liga ACB	101-83	W
17/05	UCAM Murcia Spain Liga ACB	69-87	L
14/05	San Pablo Burgos Spain Liga ACB	90-97	L
29/04	Gran Canaria Spain Liga ACB	100-101	L
25/04	Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB	91-72	W
19/04	Granada Spain Liga ACB	71-83	L
12/04	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	89-96	L
04/04	Bilbao Spain Liga ACB	74-90	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Madrid vs Unicaja Malaga?

Our model gives 72% to Real Madrid.

How many points are expected in Real Madrid vs Unicaja Malaga?

The model estimates 181.6 total points (Real Madrid 94.9 · Unicaja Malaga 86.7).