Basketball · Spain Liga ACB · 25/10, 12:00

Prediction: Girona vs Joventut

Team pages: Girona · Joventut

Prediction summary

Estimated points

175.1Total

Girona86.3

Joventut88.8

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

43% 57%

Girona Joventut

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Girona 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWWLLW

Joventut 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLLLWW

Head-to-head

Girona 4–2 Joventut (6 last)

Joventut95-84Girona
Girona82-77Joventut
Joventut71-74Girona
Joventut89-109Girona
Girona83-76Joventut
Joventut83-68Girona

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Girona 1518 · Joventut 1549

	Girona	Joventut
Our model	58%	42%
Market	39%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 175.1 points · Bet365 line 180.5 · -5.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points175.1Girona 86.3 · Joventut 88.8

Match keys

H2H favours Girona: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Girona	Joventut
Points F\|A (Last 10)	84.1 / 90.4	90.3 / 89.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	89.2 / 95.4	92.2 / 90.8
Est. result	86	89

Est. total175.1

Line O/U180.5

Diff.5.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.40

21.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+3.5)1.87

2 (-3.5)1.87

Line ⓘ

Over 180.51.87

Under 180.51.87

Diff.: 3.2 · Est. total: 177.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
2	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6%

Time*	1	2
21:49 +5’	2.40	1.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Girona 4–0–2 Joventut

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/09/26 Club Friendlies	Joventut	95-84	Girona
29/05/26 Spain Liga ACB	Girona	82-77	Joventut
18/01/26 Spain Liga ACB	Joventut	71-74	Girona
06/09/25 Club Friendlies	Joventut	89-109	Girona
08/03/25 Spain Liga ACB	Girona	83-76	Joventut
02/11/24 Spain Liga ACB	Joventut	83-68	Girona

Standings · Spain Liga ACB

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Real Madrid	4	4	0	442	361
2	Baskonia	4	3	1	386	330
3	Breogan	4	3	1	428	399
4	Tenerife	4	3	1	332	310
5	Zaragoza	4	3	1	364	346
6	Monbus Obradoiro	4	3	1	367	360
7	Valencia	4	2	2	399	369
8	Joventut	4	2	2	386	367
9	Unicaja Malaga	4	2	2	338	325
10	Barcelona	4	2	2	391	400
11	Bilbao	4	2	2	388	402
12	Girona	4	2	2	364	400
13	San Pablo Burgos	4	1	3	350	354
14	Forca Lleida	4	1	3	373	394
15	BC Andorra	4	1	3	352	380
16	UCAM Murcia	4	1	3	347	384
17	Coruna	4	1	3	366	422
18	Manresa	4	0	4	342	412

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Girona	Joventut
Breogan	92-115 L	104-110 L
Baskonia	78-118 L	73-93 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Joventut (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Girona

WLLLLWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
18/10	Coruna Spain Liga ACB	110-90	W
10/10	Breogan Spain Liga ACB	92-115	L
04/10	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	78-118	L
27/09	UCAM Murcia Spain Liga ACB	84-77	W
29/05	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	82-77	W
24/05	Bilbao Spain Liga ACB	80-86	L
16/05	Breogan Spain Liga ACB	76-95	L
12/05	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	74-79	L
09/05	UCAM Murcia Spain Liga ACB	75-86	L
02/05	Zaragoza Spain Liga ACB	90-81	W

Joventut

LWWLLLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
18/10	Barcelona Spain Liga ACB	113-89	W
14/10	BC Andorra Spain Liga ACB	96-75	W
11/10	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	73-93	L
27/09	Breogan Spain Liga ACB	104-110	L
14/06	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	75-87	L
12/06	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	76-90	L
10/06	Valencia Spain Liga ACB	117-118	L
07/06	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	96-88	W
05/06	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	82-63	W
03/06	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	71-85	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Girona vs Joventut?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Girona 43% · Joventut 57%).

How many points are expected in Girona vs Joventut?

The model estimates 175.1 total points (Girona 86.3 · Joventut 88.8).