Basketball · Spain Liga ACB · 25/10, 18:00

Prediction: Breogan vs Unicaja Malaga

Team pages: Breogan · Unicaja Malaga

Prediction summary

Estimated points

185.9Total

Breogan93.5

Unicaja Malaga92.4

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

53% 47%

Breogan Unicaja Malaga

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Breogan 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWLLWWWL

Unicaja Malaga 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLLWW

Head-to-head

Breogan 2–4 Unicaja Malaga (6 last)

Unicaja Malaga101-83Breogan
Breogan98-82Unicaja Malaga
Breogan81-79Unicaja Malaga
Unicaja Malaga86-77Breogan
Breogan65-76Unicaja Malaga
Unicaja Malaga87-70Breogan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Breogan 1563 · Unicaja Malaga 1527

	Breogan	Unicaja Malaga
Our model	67%	33%
Market	50%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 185.9 points · Bet365 line 175.5 · +10.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points185.9Breogan 93.5 · Unicaja Malaga 92.4

Match keys

H2H favours Unicaja Malaga: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Breogan	Unicaja Malaga
Points F\|A (Last 10)	99.9 / 96.7	86.1 / 88
Points F\|A (Last 5)	104.4 / 98.8	85.4 / 83.4
Est. result	94	92

Est. total185.9

Line O/U175.5

Diff.10.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.87

21.87

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.80

2 (-1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 175.51.87

Under 175.51.87

Diff.: 9.85 · Est. total: 185.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.87 → 1.87	Bet365 1.87
2	1.87 → 1.87	Bet365 1.87

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7%

Time*	1	2
21:51 +6’	1.87	1.87

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Breogan 2–0–4 Unicaja Malaga

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Spain Liga ACB	Unicaja Malaga	101-83	Breogan
03/01/26 Spain Liga ACB	Breogan	98-82	Unicaja Malaga
08/02/25 Spain Liga ACB	Breogan	81-79	Unicaja Malaga
28/12/24 Spain Liga ACB	Unicaja Malaga	86-77	Breogan
09/03/24 Spain Liga ACB	Breogan	65-76	Unicaja Malaga
28/10/23 Spain Liga ACB	Unicaja Malaga	87-70	Breogan

Standings · Spain Liga ACB

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Real Madrid	4	4	0	442	361
2	Baskonia	4	3	1	386	330
3	Breogan	4	3	1	428	399
4	Tenerife	4	3	1	332	310
5	Zaragoza	4	3	1	364	346
6	Monbus Obradoiro	4	3	1	367	360
7	Valencia	4	2	2	399	369
8	Joventut	4	2	2	386	367
9	Unicaja Malaga	4	2	2	338	325
10	Barcelona	4	2	2	391	400
11	Bilbao	4	2	2	388	402
12	Girona	4	2	2	364	400
13	San Pablo Burgos	4	1	3	350	354
14	Forca Lleida	4	1	3	373	394
15	BC Andorra	4	1	3	352	380
16	UCAM Murcia	4	1	3	347	384
17	Coruna	4	1	3	366	422
18	Manresa	4	0	4	342	412

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Breogan	Unicaja Malaga
BC Andorra	102-108 L	92-84 W
Manresa	101-95 W	84-72 W
Joventut	110-104 W	74-95 L
Real Madrid	101-97 W	87-89 L
Baskonia	84-112 L	89-92 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Unicaja Malaga (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Breogan

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
17/10	BC Andorra Spain Liga ACB	102-108	L
10/10	Girona Spain Liga ACB	115-92	W
03/10	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	101-95	W
27/09	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	110-104	W
29/05	Zaragoza Spain Liga ACB	94-95	L
23/05	Unicaja Malaga Spain Liga ACB	83-101	L
16/05	Girona Spain Liga ACB	95-76	W
13/05	Forca Lleida Spain Liga ACB	114-87	W
10/05	Real Madrid Spain Liga ACB	101-97	W
03/05	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	84-112	L

Unicaja Malaga

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
17/10	Manresa Spain Liga ACB	84-72	W
10/10	BC Andorra Spain Liga ACB	92-84	W
03/10	Tenerife Spain Liga ACB	75-80	L
27/09	Real Madrid Spain Liga ACB	87-89	L
29/05	Baskonia Spain Liga ACB	89-92	L
26/05	Joventut Spain Liga ACB	74-95	L
23/05	Breogan Spain Liga ACB	101-83	W
17/05	UCAM Murcia Spain Liga ACB	69-87	L
14/05	San Pablo Burgos Spain Liga ACB	90-97	L
29/04	Gran Canaria Spain Liga ACB	100-101	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Breogan vs Unicaja Malaga?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Breogan 53% · Unicaja Malaga 47%).

How many points are expected in Breogan vs Unicaja Malaga?

The model estimates 185.9 total points (Breogan 93.5 · Unicaja Malaga 92.4).