Basketball · Italy Lega 1 · 11/10, 17:00
Prediction: Cantu vs Napoli
Prediction summary
Estimated points
173.7Total
Cantu84.9
Napoli88.8
1X2
Cantu
Napoli
Markets
Under 172.5 points 70%
Recent form · 10 last
Cantu
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Napoli
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cantu
1–1
Napoli
(2 last)
- Cantu94-77Napoli
- Napoli98-86Cantu
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cantu 1420 · Napoli 1561
| Cantu | Napoli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 38% | 62% |
Estimated total (ours)
173.7 points · Bet365 line 172.5 · +1.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points173.7Cantu 84.9 · Napoli 88.8
Over / Under 172.5Under · 70%recent trend · ~166.8 pts · strength 6
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Napoli (rating 1420 vs 1561).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Cantu | Napoli | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 83.5 / 86.1 | 91 / 86.3 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 82.4 / 88.2 | 91 / 80.8 |
| Est. result | 85 | 89 |
Est. total173.7
Line O/U172.5
Diff.1.2
Over / Under30% / 70%
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cantu 1–0–1 Napoli
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Italy Lega 1 | Cantu | 94-77 | Napoli |
| 28/12/25 Italy Lega 1 | Napoli | 98-86 | Cantu |
Standings · Italy Lega 1
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virtus Bologna | 2 | 2 | 0 | 188 | 158 | 4 |
| 2 | Napoli | 2 | 2 | 0 | 193 | 168 | 4 |
| 3 | Udine | 2 | 2 | 0 | 172 | 147 | 4 |
| 4 | Treviso | 2 | 2 | 0 | 202 | 184 | 4 |
| 5 | Venezia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 172 | 155 | 4 |
| 6 | Roma Basketball | 2 | 1 | 1 | 202 | 179 | 2 |
| 7 | Verona | 2 | 1 | 1 | 168 | 173 | 2 |
| 8 | Derthona Basket | 2 | 1 | 1 | 171 | 201 | 2 |
| 9 | Trento | 2 | 1 | 1 | 173 | 171 | 2 |
| 10 | Varese | 2 | 1 | 1 | 154 | 167 | 2 |
| 11 | Milano | 2 | 1 | 1 | 155 | 154 | 2 |
| 12 | Trieste | 2 | 0 | 2 | 161 | 170 | 0 |
| 13 | Reggio Emilia | 2 | 0 | 2 | 171 | 182 | 0 |
| 14 | Cantu | 2 | 0 | 2 | 157 | 170 | 0 |
| 15 | Maxima Roma | 2 | 0 | 2 | 164 | 192 | 0 |
| 16 | Scafati | 2 | 0 | 2 | 140 | 172 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cantu | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Udine | 84-85 L | 98-71 W |
| Treviso | 72-80 L | 88-71 W |
| Varese | 100-96 W | 104-75 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 3 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Napoli (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cantu
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Udine Italy Lega 1 |
84-85 | L |
| 26/09 | Venezia Italy Lega 1 |
73-85 | L |
| 03/05 | Treviso Italy Lega 1 |
72-80 | L |
| 25/04 | Udine Italy Lega 1 |
83-95 | L |
| 19/04 | Varese Italy Lega 1 |
100-96 | W |
| 13/04 | Virtus Bologna Italy Lega 1 |
79-89 | L |
| 04/04 | Dinamo Sassari Italy Lega 1 |
80-78 | W |
| 29/03 | Trieste Italy Lega 1 |
97-76 | W |
| 22/03 | Derthona Basket Italy Lega 1 |
73-100 | L |
| 15/03 | Napoli Italy Lega 1 |
94-77 | W |
Napoli
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Reggio Emilia Italy Lega 1 |
99-93 | W |
| 27/09 | Maxima Roma Italy Lega 1 |
94-75 | W |
| 10/05 | Udine Italy Lega 1 |
98-71 | W |
| 03/05 | Reggio Emilia Italy Lega 1 |
80-91 | L |
| 25/04 | Trento Italy Lega 1 |
84-74 | W |
| 19/04 | Milano Italy Lega 1 |
97-125 | L |
| 12/04 | Treviso Italy Lega 1 |
88-71 | W |
| 04/04 | Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
85-100 | L |
| 29/03 | Vanoli Cremona Italy Lega 1 |
81-88 | L |
| 22/03 | Varese Italy Lega 1 |
104-75 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cantu vs Napoli?
Our model gives 61% to Napoli.
How many points are expected in Cantu vs Napoli?
The model estimates 173.7 total points (Cantu 84.9 · Napoli 88.8).
Over or under 172.5 points?
Recent history points to under 172.5 points (70%).