Basketball · Italy Lega 1 · 18/10, 16:00
Prediction: Trento vs Varese
Prediction summary
Estimated points
169.8Total
Trento87.4
Varese82.4
1X2
Trento
Varese
Recent form · 10 last
Trento
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Varese
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Trento
6–0
Varese
(6 last)
- Trento84-78Varese
- Varese74-85Trento
- Varese79-92Trento
- Trento106-100Varese
- Varese87-110Trento
- Trento90-84Varese
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Trento 1556 · Varese 1472
| Trento | Varese | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 73% | 27% |
| Market | 62% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
169.8 points · Bet365 line 165.5 · +4.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points169.8Trento 87.4 · Varese 82.4
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Trento (rating 1556 vs 1472).
- H2H favours Trento: 6-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Trento | Varese | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 84.3 / 84.7 | 85.6 / 90.1 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 84.6 / 86.6 | 81.6 / 86 |
| Est. result | 87 | 82 |
Est. total169.8
Line O/U165.5
Diff.4.3
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Trento 6–0–0 Varese
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/26 Italy Lega 1 | Trento | 84-78 | Varese |
| 25/10/25 Italy Lega 1 | Varese | 74-85 | Trento |
| 09/02/25 Italy Lega 1 | Varese | 79-92 | Trento |
| 13/10/24 Italy Lega 1 | Trento | 106-100 | Varese |
| 05/09/24 Club Friendlies | Varese | 87-110 | Trento |
| 04/02/24 Italy Lega 1 | Trento | 90-84 | Varese |
Standings · Italy Lega 1
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Napoli | 3 | 3 | 0 | 292 | 248 | 6 |
| 2 | Virtus Bologna | 3 | 3 | 0 | 281 | 244 | 6 |
| 3 | Milano | 3 | 2 | 1 | 261 | 231 | 4 |
| 4 | Trento | 3 | 2 | 1 | 247 | 237 | 4 |
| 5 | Verona | 3 | 2 | 1 | 257 | 255 | 4 |
| 6 | Treviso | 3 | 2 | 1 | 279 | 290 | 4 |
| 7 | Venezia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 258 | 248 | 4 |
| 8 | Varese | 3 | 2 | 1 | 239 | 251 | 4 |
| 9 | Udine | 3 | 2 | 1 | 238 | 221 | 4 |
| 10 | Roma Basketball | 3 | 1 | 2 | 297 | 275 | 2 |
| 11 | Reggio Emilia | 3 | 1 | 2 | 264 | 268 | 2 |
| 12 | Maxima Roma | 3 | 1 | 2 | 260 | 287 | 2 |
| 13 | Derthona Basket | 3 | 1 | 2 | 257 | 294 | 2 |
| 14 | Trieste | 3 | 0 | 3 | 245 | 255 | 0 |
| 15 | Cantu | 3 | 0 | 3 | 237 | 269 | 0 |
| 16 | Scafati | 3 | 0 | 3 | 222 | 261 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Trento
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Udine Italy Lega 1 |
74-66 | W |
| 03/10 | Treviso Italy Lega 1 |
90-93 | L |
| 26/09 | Reggio Emilia Italy Lega 1 |
83-78 | W |
| 26/05 | Virtus Bologna Italy Lega 1 |
95-106 | L |
| 24/05 | Virtus Bologna Italy Lega 1 |
81-90 | L |
| 22/05 | Virtus Bologna Italy Lega 1 |
102-85 | W |
| 19/05 | Virtus Bologna Italy Lega 1 |
87-84 | W |
| 17/05 | Virtus Bologna Italy Lega 1 |
71-102 | L |
| 10/05 | Milano Italy Lega 1 |
84-74 | W |
| 03/05 | Udine Italy Lega 1 |
76-69 | W |
Varese
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Trieste Italy Lega 1 |
85-84 | W |
| 04/10 | Scafati Italy Lega 1 |
85-77 | W |
| 27/09 | Virtus Bologna Italy Lega 1 |
69-90 | L |
| 10/05 | Virtus Bologna Italy Lega 1 |
85-104 | L |
| 26/04 | Vanoli Cremona Italy Lega 1 |
84-75 | W |
| 19/04 | Cantu Italy Lega 1 |
96-100 | L |
| 12/04 | Dinamo Sassari Italy Lega 1 |
91-90 | W |
| 04/04 | Trieste Italy Lega 1 |
89-90 | L |
| 28/03 | Derthona Basket Italy Lega 1 |
97-87 | W |
| 22/03 | Napoli Italy Lega 1 |
75-104 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Trento vs Varese?
Our model gives 64% to Trento.
How many points are expected in Trento vs Varese?
The model estimates 169.8 total points (Trento 87.4 · Varese 82.4).