Basketball · Italy Lega 1 · 18/10, 18:00
Prediction: Trieste vs Cantu
Prediction summary
Estimated points
168.8Total
Trieste86.4
Cantu82.5
1X2
Trieste
Cantu
Recent form · 10 last
Trieste
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Cantu
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Trieste
4–2
Cantu
(6 last)
- Cantu97-76Trieste
- Trieste84-79Cantu
- Trieste83-72Cantu
- Trieste73-74Cantu
- Cantu73-83Trieste
- Cantu65-72Trieste
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Trieste 1449 · Cantu 1398
| Trieste | Cantu | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 31% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
168.8 points · Bet365 line 167.5 · +1.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points168.8Trieste 86.4 · Cantu 82.5
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Trieste (rating 1449 vs 1398).
- H2H favours Trieste: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Trieste | Cantu | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 82.4 / 86.6 | 82.1 / 88.3 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 80.6 / 84.4 | 78.4 / 88.8 |
| Est. result | 86 | 83 |
Est. total168.8
Line O/U167.5
Diff.1.3
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Trieste 4–0–2 Cantu
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/26 Italy Lega 1 | Cantu | 97-76 | Trieste |
| 11/01/26 Italy Lega 1 | Trieste | 84-79 | Cantu |
| 12/06/24 Italy Serie A2 | Trieste | 83-72 | Cantu |
| 10/06/24 Italy Serie A2 | Trieste | 73-74 | Cantu |
| 06/06/24 Italy Serie A2 | Cantu | 73-83 | Trieste |
| 04/06/24 Italy Serie A2 | Cantu | 65-72 | Trieste |
Standings · Italy Lega 1
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Napoli | 3 | 3 | 0 | 292 | 248 | 6 |
| 2 | Virtus Bologna | 3 | 3 | 0 | 281 | 244 | 6 |
| 3 | Milano | 3 | 2 | 1 | 261 | 231 | 4 |
| 4 | Trento | 3 | 2 | 1 | 247 | 237 | 4 |
| 5 | Verona | 3 | 2 | 1 | 257 | 255 | 4 |
| 6 | Treviso | 3 | 2 | 1 | 279 | 290 | 4 |
| 7 | Venezia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 258 | 248 | 4 |
| 8 | Varese | 3 | 2 | 1 | 239 | 251 | 4 |
| 9 | Udine | 3 | 2 | 1 | 238 | 221 | 4 |
| 10 | Roma Basketball | 3 | 1 | 2 | 297 | 275 | 2 |
| 11 | Reggio Emilia | 3 | 1 | 2 | 264 | 268 | 2 |
| 12 | Maxima Roma | 3 | 1 | 2 | 260 | 287 | 2 |
| 13 | Derthona Basket | 3 | 1 | 2 | 257 | 294 | 2 |
| 14 | Trieste | 3 | 0 | 3 | 245 | 255 | 0 |
| 15 | Cantu | 3 | 0 | 3 | 237 | 269 | 0 |
| 16 | Scafati | 3 | 0 | 3 | 222 | 261 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Trieste | Cantu |
|---|---|---|
| Varese | 84-85 L | 100-96 W |
| Venezia | 82-87 L | 73-85 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Trieste
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Varese Italy Lega 1 |
84-85 | L |
| 04/10 | Venezia Italy Lega 1 |
82-87 | L |
| 27/09 | Milano Italy Lega 1 |
79-83 | L |
| 25/05 | Leonessa Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
75-90 | L |
| 23/05 | Leonessa Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
83-77 | W |
| 21/05 | Leonessa Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
80-84 | L |
| 18/05 | Leonessa Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
82-90 | L |
| 16/05 | Leonessa Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
92-90 | W |
| 10/05 | Vanoli Cremona Italy Lega 1 |
89-94 | L |
| 03/05 | Milano Italy Lega 1 |
78-86 | L |
Cantu
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Napoli Italy Lega 1 |
80-99 | L |
| 05/10 | Udine Italy Lega 1 |
84-85 | L |
| 26/09 | Venezia Italy Lega 1 |
73-85 | L |
| 03/05 | Treviso Italy Lega 1 |
72-80 | L |
| 25/04 | Udine Italy Lega 1 |
83-95 | L |
| 19/04 | Varese Italy Lega 1 |
100-96 | W |
| 13/04 | Virtus Bologna Italy Lega 1 |
79-89 | L |
| 04/04 | Dinamo Sassari Italy Lega 1 |
80-78 | W |
| 29/03 | Trieste Italy Lega 1 |
97-76 | W |
| 22/03 | Derthona Basket Italy Lega 1 |
73-100 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Trieste vs Cantu?
Our model gives 61% to Trieste.
How many points are expected in Trieste vs Cantu?
The model estimates 168.8 total points (Trieste 86.4 · Cantu 82.5).