Basketball · Italy Lega 1 · 08/11, 17:30

Prediction: Derthona Basket vs Treviso

Team pages: Derthona Basket · Treviso

Prediction summary

Estimated points

174.5Total

Derthona Basket87.4

Treviso87.1

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

51% 49%

Derthona Basket Treviso

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Derthona Basket 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LWWLWLLLLL

Treviso 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWLWWW

Head-to-head

Derthona Basket 2–4 Treviso (6 last)

Treviso91-86Derthona Basket
Derthona Basket107-95Treviso
Treviso92-91Derthona Basket
Derthona Basket90-95Treviso
Treviso78-86Derthona Basket
Treviso87-74Derthona Basket

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Derthona Basket 1456 · Treviso 1580

	Derthona Basket	Treviso
Our model	45%	55%
Market	53%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 174.5 points · Bet365 line 175.5 · -1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points174.5Derthona Basket 87.4 · Treviso 87.1

Match keys

H2H favours Treviso: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Derthona Basket	Treviso
Points F\|A (Last 10)	82.8 / 87.9	90.8 / 85.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	79.6 / 93.6	90 / 87.8
Est. result	87	87

Est. total174.5

Line O/U175.5

Diff.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.77

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.87

2 (+1.5)1.87

Line ⓘ

Over 175.51.87

Under 175.51.87

Diff.: 2.05 · Est. total: 173.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.77 → 1.77	Bet365 1.77
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.5%

Time*	1	2
15:51 +3’	1.77	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Derthona Basket 2–0–4 Treviso

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Italy Lega 1	Treviso	91-86	Derthona Basket
12/10/25 Italy Lega 1	Derthona Basket	107-95	Treviso
19/04/25 Italy Lega 1	Treviso	92-91	Derthona Basket
07/12/24 Italy Lega 1	Derthona Basket	90-95	Treviso
22/09/24 Club Friendlies	Treviso	78-86	Derthona Basket
05/05/24 Italy Lega 1	Treviso	87-74	Derthona Basket

Standings · Italy Lega 1

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Virtus Bologna	6	5	1	580	521	10
2	Napoli	6	5	1	565	517	10
3	Treviso	6	5	1	559	533	10
4	Milano	6	4	2	548	493	8
5	Maxima Roma	6	4	2	518	499	8
6	Varese	6	4	2	533	529	8
7	Trento	6	3	3	477	497	6
8	Venezia	6	3	3	532	542	6
9	Trieste	6	3	3	545	519	6
10	Udine	6	3	3	485	481	6
11	Verona	6	3	3	538	543	6
12	Roma Basketball	6	2	4	601	579	4
13	Reggio Emilia	6	2	4	494	503	4
14	Derthona Basket	6	1	5	499	561	2
15	Scafati	6	1	5	482	553	2
16	Cantu	6	0	6	451	537	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Derthona Basket	Treviso
Udine	77-86 L	102-86 W
Reggio Emilia	86-93 L	81-68 W
Roma Basketball	70-108 L	109-94 W
Venezia	83-89 L	97-89 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Treviso (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Derthona Basket

LWWLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
01/11	Udine Italy Lega 1	77-86	L
25/10	Napoli Italy Lega 1	90-92	L
18/10	Maxima Roma Italy Lega 1	75-89	L
11/10	Reggio Emilia Italy Lega 1	86-93	L
04/10	Roma Basketball Italy Lega 1	70-108	L
27/09	Verona Italy Lega 1	101-93	W
26/05	Venezia Italy Lega 1	83-89	L
24/05	Venezia Italy Lega 1	89-71	W
22/05	Venezia Italy Lega 1	82-71	W
19/05	Venezia Italy Lega 1	75-87	L

Treviso

WWWWWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/10	Reggio Emilia Italy Lega 1	81-68	W
25/10	Venezia Italy Lega 1	97-89	W
18/10	Udine Italy Lega 1	102-86	W
11/10	Milano Italy Lega 1	77-106	L
03/10	Trento Italy Lega 1	93-90	W
26/09	Roma Basketball Italy Lega 1	109-94	W
10/05	Reggio Emilia Italy Lega 1	78-77	W
03/05	Cantu Italy Lega 1	80-72	W
26/04	Leonessa Brescia Italy Lega 1	99-90	W
18/04	Udine Italy Lega 1	92-82	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Derthona Basket vs Treviso?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Derthona Basket 51% · Treviso 49%).

How many points are expected in Derthona Basket vs Treviso?

The model estimates 174.5 total points (Derthona Basket 87.4 · Treviso 87.1).