Basketball · Italy Lega 1 · 15/11, 19:00
Prediction: Trento vs Virtus Bologna
Team pages: Trento · Virtus Bologna
Prediction summary
Estimated points
176.4Total
Trento85.9
Virtus Bologna90.5
1X2
Trento
Virtus Bologna
Recent form · 10 last
Trento
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Virtus Bologna
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Trento
3–3
Virtus Bologna
(6 last)
- Virtus Bologna106-95Trento
- Trento81-90Virtus Bologna
- Trento102-85Virtus Bologna
- Virtus Bologna84-87Trento
- Virtus Bologna102-71Trento
- Virtus Bologna85-87Trento
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Trento 1454 · Virtus Bologna 1528
| Trento | Virtus Bologna | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 33% | 67% |
Estimated total (ours)
176.4 points · Bet365 line 171.5 · +4.9
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points176.4Trento 85.9 · Virtus Bologna 90.5
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Virtus Bologna (rating 1454 vs 1528).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Trento | Virtus Bologna | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 84.1 / 86.6 | 94.1 / 86 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 78 / 82.8 | 97.4 / 88.8 |
| Est. result | 86 | 91 |
Est. total176.4
Line O/U171.5
Diff.4.9
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Trento 3–0–3 Virtus Bologna
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/26 Italy Lega 1 | Virtus Bologna | 106-95 | Trento |
| 24/05/26 Italy Lega 1 | Trento | 81-90 | Virtus Bologna |
| 22/05/26 Italy Lega 1 | Trento | 102-85 | Virtus Bologna |
| 19/05/26 Italy Lega 1 | Virtus Bologna | 84-87 | Trento |
| 17/05/26 Italy Lega 1 | Virtus Bologna | 102-71 | Trento |
| 01/02/26 Italy Lega 1 | Virtus Bologna | 85-87 | Trento |
Standings · Italy Lega 1
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virtus Bologna | 7 | 6 | 1 | 675 | 602 | 12 |
| 2 | Napoli | 7 | 6 | 1 | 656 | 606 | 12 |
| 3 | Milano | 7 | 5 | 2 | 636 | 579 | 10 |
| 4 | Maxima Roma | 7 | 5 | 2 | 617 | 586 | 10 |
| 5 | Treviso | 7 | 5 | 2 | 635 | 620 | 10 |
| 6 | Venezia | 7 | 4 | 3 | 615 | 620 | 8 |
| 7 | Udine | 7 | 4 | 3 | 569 | 562 | 8 |
| 8 | Varese | 7 | 4 | 3 | 614 | 613 | 8 |
| 9 | Trieste | 7 | 4 | 3 | 661 | 619 | 8 |
| 10 | Verona | 7 | 3 | 4 | 619 | 638 | 6 |
| 11 | Trento | 7 | 3 | 4 | 563 | 585 | 6 |
| 12 | Roma Basketball | 7 | 2 | 5 | 701 | 695 | 4 |
| 13 | Reggio Emilia | 7 | 2 | 5 | 572 | 586 | 4 |
| 14 | Derthona Basket | 7 | 2 | 5 | 586 | 637 | 4 |
| 15 | Scafati | 7 | 1 | 6 | 571 | 644 | 2 |
| 16 | Cantu | 7 | 0 | 7 | 538 | 636 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Trento | Virtus Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Milano | 86-88 L | 98-94 W |
| Maxima Roma | 62-88 L | 98-89 W |
| Scafati | 81-87 L | 108-83 W |
| Varese | 87-85 W | 90-69 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 4 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Virtus Bologna (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Trento
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Milano Italy Lega 1 |
86-88 | L |
| 01/11 | Maxima Roma Italy Lega 1 |
62-88 | L |
| 24/10 | Scafati Italy Lega 1 |
81-87 | L |
| 18/10 | Varese Italy Lega 1 |
87-85 | W |
| 10/10 | Udine Italy Lega 1 |
74-66 | W |
| 03/10 | Treviso Italy Lega 1 |
90-93 | L |
| 26/09 | Reggio Emilia Italy Lega 1 |
83-78 | W |
| 26/05 | Virtus Bologna Italy Lega 1 |
95-106 | L |
| 24/05 | Virtus Bologna Italy Lega 1 |
81-90 | L |
| 22/05 | Virtus Bologna Italy Lega 1 |
102-85 | W |
Virtus Bologna
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | Verona Italy Lega 1 |
95-81 | W |
| 02/11 | Trieste Italy Lega 1 |
93-100 | L |
| 25/10 | Milano Italy Lega 1 |
98-94 | W |
| 18/10 | Scafati Italy Lega 1 |
108-83 | W |
| 11/10 | Venezia Italy Lega 1 |
93-86 | W |
| 04/10 | Maxima Roma Italy Lega 1 |
98-89 | W |
| 27/09 | Varese Italy Lega 1 |
90-69 | W |
| 06/06 | Venezia Italy Lega 1 |
83-90 | L |
| 04/06 | Venezia Italy Lega 1 |
85-89 | L |
| 01/06 | Venezia Italy Lega 1 |
98-79 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Trento vs Virtus Bologna?
Our model gives 63% to Virtus Bologna.
How many points are expected in Trento vs Virtus Bologna?
The model estimates 176.4 total points (Trento 85.9 · Virtus Bologna 90.5).