Basketball · Italy Lega 1 · 08/11, 19:00
Prediction: Varese vs Udine
Prediction summary
Estimated points
165.7Total
Varese86.3
Udine79.4
1X2
Varese
Udine
Recent form · 10 last
Varese
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Udine
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Varese
1–1
Udine
(2 last)
- Udine81-92Varese
- Varese59-66Udine
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Varese 1527 · Udine 1486
| Varese | Udine | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 32% |
| Market | 70% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
165.7 points · Bet365 line 168.5 · -2.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points165.7Varese 86.3 · Udine 79.4
Match keys
- Varese is a clear favourite (69% market).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Varese | Udine | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 88.9 / 89.8 | 80.2 / 83 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 92.8 / 87.8 | 79.6 / 83.6 |
| Est. result | 86 | 79 |
Est. total165.7
Line O/U168.5
Diff.2.8
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Varese 1–0–1 Udine
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 Italy Lega 1 | Udine | 81-92 | Varese |
| 23/11/25 Italy Lega 1 | Varese | 59-66 | Udine |
Standings · Italy Lega 1
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virtus Bologna | 6 | 5 | 1 | 580 | 521 | 10 |
| 2 | Napoli | 6 | 5 | 1 | 565 | 517 | 10 |
| 3 | Treviso | 6 | 5 | 1 | 559 | 533 | 10 |
| 4 | Milano | 6 | 4 | 2 | 548 | 493 | 8 |
| 5 | Maxima Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 518 | 499 | 8 |
| 6 | Varese | 6 | 4 | 2 | 533 | 529 | 8 |
| 7 | Trento | 6 | 3 | 3 | 477 | 497 | 6 |
| 8 | Venezia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 532 | 542 | 6 |
| 9 | Trieste | 6 | 3 | 3 | 545 | 519 | 6 |
| 10 | Udine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 485 | 481 | 6 |
| 11 | Verona | 6 | 3 | 3 | 538 | 543 | 6 |
| 12 | Roma Basketball | 6 | 2 | 4 | 601 | 579 | 4 |
| 13 | Reggio Emilia | 6 | 2 | 4 | 494 | 503 | 4 |
| 14 | Derthona Basket | 6 | 1 | 5 | 499 | 561 | 2 |
| 15 | Scafati | 6 | 1 | 5 | 482 | 553 | 2 |
| 16 | Cantu | 6 | 0 | 6 | 451 | 537 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Varese | Udine |
|---|---|---|
| Trento | 85-87 L | 66-74 L |
| Scafati | 85-77 W | 87-63 W |
| Cantu | 96-100 L | 85-84 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Udine (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Varese
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Verona Italy Lega 1 |
99-88 | W |
| 24/10 | Roma Basketball Italy Lega 1 |
110-103 | W |
| 18/10 | Trento Italy Lega 1 |
85-87 | L |
| 10/10 | Trieste Italy Lega 1 |
85-84 | W |
| 04/10 | Scafati Italy Lega 1 |
85-77 | W |
| 27/09 | Virtus Bologna Italy Lega 1 |
69-90 | L |
| 10/05 | Virtus Bologna Italy Lega 1 |
85-104 | L |
| 26/04 | Vanoli Cremona Italy Lega 1 |
84-75 | W |
| 19/04 | Cantu Italy Lega 1 |
96-100 | L |
| 12/04 | Dinamo Sassari Italy Lega 1 |
91-90 | W |
Udine
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Derthona Basket Italy Lega 1 |
86-77 | W |
| 25/10 | Maxima Roma Italy Lega 1 |
75-81 | L |
| 18/10 | Treviso Italy Lega 1 |
86-102 | L |
| 10/10 | Trento Italy Lega 1 |
66-74 | L |
| 05/10 | Cantu Italy Lega 1 |
85-84 | W |
| 27/09 | Scafati Italy Lega 1 |
87-63 | W |
| 10/05 | Napoli Italy Lega 1 |
71-98 | L |
| 03/05 | Trento Italy Lega 1 |
69-76 | L |
| 25/04 | Cantu Italy Lega 1 |
95-83 | W |
| 18/04 | Treviso Italy Lega 1 |
82-92 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Varese vs Udine?
Our model gives 69% to Varese.
How many points are expected in Varese vs Udine?
The model estimates 165.7 total points (Varese 86.3 · Udine 79.4).