Basketball · Italy Lega 1 · 15/11, 17:00
Prediction: Napoli vs Trieste
Prediction summary
Estimated points
179.5Total
Napoli94.4
Trieste85
1X2
Napoli
Trieste
Recent form · 10 last
Napoli
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Trieste
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Napoli
0–6
Trieste
(6 last)
- Trieste110-84Napoli
- Napoli79-84Trieste
- Trieste109-82Napoli
- Napoli83-92Trieste
- Trieste85-68Napoli
- Napoli92-95Trieste
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Napoli 1608 · Trieste 1509
| Napoli | Trieste | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 25% |
| Market | 74% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
179.5 points · Bet365 line 180.5 · -1
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points179.5Napoli 94.4 · Trieste 85
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Napoli (rating 1608 vs 1509).
- Napoli is a clear favourite (75% market).
- H2H favours Trieste: 6-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Napoli | Trieste | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 91.8 / 84.2 | 89.9 / 87 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 92.6 / 87.6 | 100 / 89.8 |
| Est. result | 94 | 85 |
Est. total179.5
Line O/U180.5
Diff.1
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Napoli 0–0–6 Trieste
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 Italy Lega 1 | Trieste | 110-84 | Napoli |
| 11/10/25 Italy Lega 1 | Napoli | 79-84 | Trieste |
| 06/04/25 Italy Lega 1 | Trieste | 109-82 | Napoli |
| 06/10/24 Italy Lega 1 | Napoli | 83-92 | Trieste |
| 29/01/23 Italy Lega 1 | Trieste | 85-68 | Napoli |
| 30/10/22 Italy Lega 1 | Napoli | 92-95 | Trieste |
Standings · Italy Lega 1
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virtus Bologna | 7 | 6 | 1 | 675 | 602 | 12 |
| 2 | Napoli | 7 | 6 | 1 | 656 | 606 | 12 |
| 3 | Milano | 7 | 5 | 2 | 636 | 579 | 10 |
| 4 | Maxima Roma | 7 | 5 | 2 | 617 | 586 | 10 |
| 5 | Treviso | 7 | 5 | 2 | 635 | 620 | 10 |
| 6 | Venezia | 7 | 4 | 3 | 615 | 620 | 8 |
| 7 | Udine | 7 | 4 | 3 | 569 | 562 | 8 |
| 8 | Varese | 7 | 4 | 3 | 614 | 613 | 8 |
| 9 | Trieste | 7 | 4 | 3 | 661 | 619 | 8 |
| 10 | Verona | 7 | 3 | 4 | 619 | 638 | 6 |
| 11 | Trento | 7 | 3 | 4 | 563 | 585 | 6 |
| 12 | Roma Basketball | 7 | 2 | 5 | 701 | 695 | 4 |
| 13 | Reggio Emilia | 7 | 2 | 5 | 572 | 586 | 4 |
| 14 | Derthona Basket | 7 | 2 | 5 | 586 | 637 | 4 |
| 15 | Scafati | 7 | 1 | 6 | 571 | 644 | 2 |
| 16 | Cantu | 7 | 0 | 7 | 538 | 636 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Napoli | Trieste |
|---|---|---|
| Venezia | 99-81 W | 82-87 L |
| Milano | 82-98 L | 79-83 L |
| Cantu | 99-80 W | 92-72 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Trieste (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Napoli
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Scafati Italy Lega 1 |
91-89 | W |
| 01/11 | Venezia Italy Lega 1 |
99-81 | W |
| 25/10 | Derthona Basket Italy Lega 1 |
92-90 | W |
| 18/10 | Milano Italy Lega 1 |
82-98 | L |
| 11/10 | Cantu Italy Lega 1 |
99-80 | W |
| 03/10 | Reggio Emilia Italy Lega 1 |
99-93 | W |
| 27/09 | Maxima Roma Italy Lega 1 |
94-75 | W |
| 10/05 | Udine Italy Lega 1 |
98-71 | W |
| 03/05 | Reggio Emilia Italy Lega 1 |
80-91 | L |
| 25/04 | Trento Italy Lega 1 |
84-74 | W |
Trieste
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Roma Basketball Italy Lega 1 |
116-100 | W |
| 02/11 | Virtus Bologna Italy Lega 1 |
100-93 | W |
| 25/10 | Verona Italy Lega 1 |
108-99 | W |
| 18/10 | Cantu Italy Lega 1 |
92-72 | W |
| 10/10 | Varese Italy Lega 1 |
84-85 | L |
| 04/10 | Venezia Italy Lega 1 |
82-87 | L |
| 27/09 | Milano Italy Lega 1 |
79-83 | L |
| 25/05 | Leonessa Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
75-90 | L |
| 23/05 | Leonessa Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
83-77 | W |
| 21/05 | Leonessa Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
80-84 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Napoli vs Trieste?
Our model gives 75% to Napoli.
How many points are expected in Napoli vs Trieste?
The model estimates 179.5 total points (Napoli 94.4 · Trieste 85).