Basketball · Italy Lega 1 · 11/10, 16:00
Prediction: Milano vs Treviso
Prediction summary
Estimated points
172Total
Milano92.4
Treviso79.6
1X2
Milano
Treviso
Recent form · 10 last
Milano
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Treviso
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Milano
6–0
Treviso
(6 last)
- Treviso71-76Milano
- Milano87-63Treviso
- Milano90-80Treviso
- Treviso79-89Milano
- Treviso89-91Milano
- Milano86-80Treviso
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Milano 1550 · Treviso 1552
| Milano | Treviso | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 86% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
172 points · Bet365 line 170.5 · +1.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points172Milano 92.4 · Treviso 79.6
Match keys
- Milano is a clear favourite (82% market).
- H2H favours Milano: 6-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Milano | Treviso | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 88.1 / 80.5 | 91.8 / 87.6 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 86 / 82.8 | 91.8 / 84.6 |
| Est. result | 92 | 80 |
Est. total172
Line O/U170.5
Diff.1.5
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Milano 6–0–0 Treviso
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/26 Italy Lega 1 | Treviso | 71-76 | Milano |
| 09/11/25 Italy Lega 1 | Milano | 87-63 | Treviso |
| 09/03/25 Italy Lega 1 | Milano | 90-80 | Treviso |
| 29/12/24 Italy Lega 1 | Treviso | 79-89 | Milano |
| 14/04/24 Italy Lega 1 | Treviso | 89-91 | Milano |
| 01/10/23 Italy Lega 1 | Milano | 86-80 | Treviso |
Standings · Italy Lega 1
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virtus Bologna | 2 | 2 | 0 | 188 | 158 | 4 |
| 2 | Napoli | 2 | 2 | 0 | 193 | 168 | 4 |
| 3 | Udine | 2 | 2 | 0 | 172 | 147 | 4 |
| 4 | Treviso | 2 | 2 | 0 | 202 | 184 | 4 |
| 5 | Venezia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 172 | 155 | 4 |
| 6 | Roma Basketball | 2 | 1 | 1 | 202 | 179 | 2 |
| 7 | Verona | 2 | 1 | 1 | 168 | 173 | 2 |
| 8 | Derthona Basket | 2 | 1 | 1 | 171 | 201 | 2 |
| 9 | Trento | 2 | 1 | 1 | 173 | 171 | 2 |
| 10 | Varese | 2 | 1 | 1 | 154 | 167 | 2 |
| 11 | Milano | 2 | 1 | 1 | 155 | 154 | 2 |
| 12 | Trieste | 2 | 0 | 2 | 161 | 170 | 0 |
| 13 | Reggio Emilia | 2 | 0 | 2 | 171 | 182 | 0 |
| 14 | Cantu | 2 | 0 | 2 | 157 | 170 | 0 |
| 15 | Maxima Roma | 2 | 0 | 2 | 164 | 192 | 0 |
| 16 | Scafati | 2 | 0 | 2 | 140 | 172 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Milano
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Verona Italy Lega 1 |
72-75 | L |
| 27/09 | Trieste Italy Lega 1 |
83-79 | W |
| 18/06 | Venezia Italy Lega 1 |
86-72 | W |
| 16/06 | Venezia Italy Lega 1 |
97-109 | L |
| 13/06 | Venezia Italy Lega 1 |
92-79 | W |
| 11/06 | Venezia Italy Lega 1 |
100-80 | W |
| 05/06 | Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
91-86 | W |
| 03/06 | Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
93-68 | W |
| 31/05 | Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
79-85 | L |
| 29/05 | Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
88-72 | W |
Treviso
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Trento Italy Lega 1 |
93-90 | W |
| 26/09 | Roma Basketball Italy Lega 1 |
109-94 | W |
| 10/05 | Reggio Emilia Italy Lega 1 |
78-77 | W |
| 03/05 | Cantu Italy Lega 1 |
80-72 | W |
| 26/04 | Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
99-90 | W |
| 18/04 | Udine Italy Lega 1 |
92-82 | W |
| 12/04 | Napoli Italy Lega 1 |
71-88 | L |
| 04/04 | Derthona Basket Italy Lega 1 |
91-86 | W |
| 29/03 | Dinamo Sassari Italy Lega 1 |
108-103 | W |
| 22/03 | Vanoli Cremona Italy Lega 1 |
97-94 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Milano vs Treviso?
Our model gives 82% to Milano.
How many points are expected in Milano vs Treviso?
The model estimates 172 total points (Milano 92.4 · Treviso 79.6).