Basketball · Italy Lega 1 · 08/11, 17:00
Prediction: Milano vs Trento
Prediction summary
Estimated points
170.6Total
Milano90.9
Trento79.6
1X2
Milano
Trento
Recent form · 10 last
Milano
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Trento
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Milano
4–2
Trento
(6 last)
- Trento84-74Milano
- Milano94-90Trento
- Milano89-82Trento
- Milano107-79Trento
- Trento70-67Milano
- Trento70-73Milano
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Milano 1517 · Trento 1477
| Milano | Trento | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 32% |
| Market | 82% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
170.6 points · Bet365 line 168.5 · +2.1
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points170.6Milano 90.9 · Trento 79.6
Match keys
- Milano is a clear favourite (79% market).
- H2H favours Milano: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Milano | Trento | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 92.3 / 83.3 | 84.2 / 86.2 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 93 / 82.8 | 78.8 / 83.8 |
| Est. result | 91 | 80 |
Est. total170.6
Line O/U168.5
Diff.2.1
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Milano 4–0–2 Trento
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Italy Lega 1 | Trento | 84-74 | Milano |
| 07/12/25 Italy Lega 1 | Milano | 94-90 | Trento |
| 24/05/25 Italy Lega 1 | Milano | 89-82 | Trento |
| 22/05/25 Italy Lega 1 | Milano | 107-79 | Trento |
| 19/05/25 Italy Lega 1 | Trento | 70-67 | Milano |
| 17/05/25 Italy Lega 1 | Trento | 70-73 | Milano |
Standings · Italy Lega 1
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virtus Bologna | 6 | 5 | 1 | 580 | 521 | 10 |
| 2 | Napoli | 6 | 5 | 1 | 565 | 517 | 10 |
| 3 | Treviso | 6 | 5 | 1 | 559 | 533 | 10 |
| 4 | Milano | 6 | 4 | 2 | 548 | 493 | 8 |
| 5 | Maxima Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 518 | 499 | 8 |
| 6 | Varese | 6 | 4 | 2 | 533 | 529 | 8 |
| 7 | Trento | 6 | 3 | 3 | 477 | 497 | 6 |
| 8 | Venezia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 532 | 542 | 6 |
| 9 | Trieste | 6 | 3 | 3 | 545 | 519 | 6 |
| 10 | Udine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 485 | 481 | 6 |
| 11 | Verona | 6 | 3 | 3 | 538 | 543 | 6 |
| 12 | Roma Basketball | 6 | 2 | 4 | 601 | 579 | 4 |
| 13 | Reggio Emilia | 6 | 2 | 4 | 494 | 503 | 4 |
| 14 | Derthona Basket | 6 | 1 | 5 | 499 | 561 | 2 |
| 15 | Scafati | 6 | 1 | 5 | 482 | 553 | 2 |
| 16 | Cantu | 6 | 0 | 6 | 451 | 537 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Milano | Trento |
|---|---|---|
| Virtus Bologna | 94-98 L | 95-106 L |
| Treviso | 106-77 W | 90-93 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Milano (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Milano
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | Cantu Italy Lega 1 |
95-82 | W |
| 25/10 | Virtus Bologna Italy Lega 1 |
94-98 | L |
| 18/10 | Napoli Italy Lega 1 |
98-82 | W |
| 11/10 | Treviso Italy Lega 1 |
106-77 | W |
| 05/10 | Verona Italy Lega 1 |
72-75 | L |
| 27/09 | Trieste Italy Lega 1 |
83-79 | W |
| 18/06 | Venezia Italy Lega 1 |
86-72 | W |
| 16/06 | Venezia Italy Lega 1 |
97-109 | L |
| 13/06 | Venezia Italy Lega 1 |
92-79 | W |
| 11/06 | Venezia Italy Lega 1 |
100-80 | W |
Trento
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Maxima Roma Italy Lega 1 |
62-88 | L |
| 24/10 | Scafati Italy Lega 1 |
81-87 | L |
| 18/10 | Varese Italy Lega 1 |
87-85 | W |
| 10/10 | Udine Italy Lega 1 |
74-66 | W |
| 03/10 | Treviso Italy Lega 1 |
90-93 | L |
| 26/09 | Reggio Emilia Italy Lega 1 |
83-78 | W |
| 26/05 | Virtus Bologna Italy Lega 1 |
95-106 | L |
| 24/05 | Virtus Bologna Italy Lega 1 |
81-90 | L |
| 22/05 | Virtus Bologna Italy Lega 1 |
102-85 | W |
| 19/05 | Virtus Bologna Italy Lega 1 |
87-84 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Milano vs Trento?
Our model gives 79% to Milano.
How many points are expected in Milano vs Trento?
The model estimates 170.6 total points (Milano 90.9 · Trento 79.6).