Basketball · Italy Lega 1 · 10/10, 20:30
Prediction: Varese vs Trieste
Prediction summary
Estimated points
172.1Total
Varese89.3
Trieste82.8
1X2
Varese
Trieste
Recent form · 10 last
Varese
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Trieste
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Varese
4–2
Trieste
(6 last)
- Trieste90-89Varese
- Varese84-69Trieste
- Varese85-80Trieste
- Trieste107-81Varese
- Trieste80-83Varese
- Varese104-99Trieste
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Varese 1505 · Trieste 1437
| Varese | Trieste | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 29% |
| Market | 67% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
172.1 points · Bet365 line 171.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Estimated points172.1Varese 89.3 · Trieste 82.8
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Varese (rating 1505 vs 1437).
- Varese is a clear favourite (68% market).
- H2H favours Varese: 4-2.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Varese | Trieste | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 86.2 / 90.3 | 82.1 / 87.6 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 83.8 / 89.2 | 79.8 / 84.2 |
| Est. result | 89 | 83 |
Est. total172.1
Line O/U171.5
Diff.0.6
The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.
Head-to-head (H2H) · Varese 4–0–2 Trieste
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Italy Lega 1 | Trieste | 90-89 | Varese |
| 21/12/25 Italy Lega 1 | Varese | 84-69 | Trieste |
| 04/05/25 Italy Lega 1 | Varese | 85-80 | Trieste |
| 03/11/24 Italy Lega 1 | Trieste | 107-81 | Varese |
| 16/04/23 Italy Lega 1 | Trieste | 80-83 | Varese |
| 18/12/22 Italy Lega 1 | Varese | 104-99 | Trieste |
Standings · Italy Lega 1
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virtus Bologna | 2 | 2 | 0 | 188 | 158 | 4 |
| 2 | Napoli | 2 | 2 | 0 | 193 | 168 | 4 |
| 3 | Udine | 2 | 2 | 0 | 172 | 147 | 4 |
| 4 | Treviso | 2 | 2 | 0 | 202 | 184 | 4 |
| 5 | Venezia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 172 | 155 | 4 |
| 6 | Roma Basketball | 2 | 1 | 1 | 202 | 179 | 2 |
| 7 | Verona | 2 | 1 | 1 | 168 | 173 | 2 |
| 8 | Derthona Basket | 2 | 1 | 1 | 171 | 201 | 2 |
| 9 | Trento | 2 | 1 | 1 | 173 | 171 | 2 |
| 10 | Varese | 2 | 1 | 1 | 154 | 167 | 2 |
| 11 | Milano | 2 | 1 | 1 | 155 | 154 | 2 |
| 12 | Trieste | 2 | 0 | 2 | 161 | 170 | 0 |
| 13 | Reggio Emilia | 2 | 0 | 2 | 171 | 182 | 0 |
| 14 | Cantu | 2 | 0 | 2 | 157 | 170 | 0 |
| 15 | Maxima Roma | 2 | 0 | 2 | 164 | 192 | 0 |
| 16 | Scafati | 2 | 0 | 2 | 140 | 172 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Varese | Trieste |
|---|---|---|
| Virtus Bologna | 69-90 L | 81-95 L |
| Vanoli Cremona | 84-75 W | 89-94 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Varese
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Scafati Italy Lega 1 |
85-77 | W |
| 27/09 | Virtus Bologna Italy Lega 1 |
69-90 | L |
| 10/05 | Virtus Bologna Italy Lega 1 |
85-104 | L |
| 26/04 | Vanoli Cremona Italy Lega 1 |
84-75 | W |
| 19/04 | Cantu Italy Lega 1 |
96-100 | L |
| 12/04 | Dinamo Sassari Italy Lega 1 |
91-90 | W |
| 04/04 | Trieste Italy Lega 1 |
89-90 | L |
| 28/03 | Derthona Basket Italy Lega 1 |
97-87 | W |
| 22/03 | Napoli Italy Lega 1 |
75-104 | L |
| 15/03 | Treviso Italy Lega 1 |
91-86 | W |
Trieste
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Venezia Italy Lega 1 |
82-87 | L |
| 27/09 | Milano Italy Lega 1 |
79-83 | L |
| 25/05 | Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
75-90 | L |
| 23/05 | Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
83-77 | W |
| 21/05 | Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
80-84 | L |
| 18/05 | Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
82-90 | L |
| 16/05 | Brescia Italy Lega 1 |
92-90 | W |
| 10/05 | Vanoli Cremona Italy Lega 1 |
89-94 | L |
| 03/05 | Milano Italy Lega 1 |
78-86 | L |
| 26/04 | Virtus Bologna Italy Lega 1 |
81-95 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Varese vs Trieste?
Our model gives 68% to Varese.
How many points are expected in Varese vs Trieste?
The model estimates 172.1 total points (Varese 89.3 · Trieste 82.8).