Basketball · Australia NBL · 23/10, 12:30

Prediction: Perth Wildcats vs Melbourne United

Prediction summary

Estimated points

178.5Total

Perth Wildcats89.1

Melbourne United89.4

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

49% 51%

Perth Wildcats Melbourne United

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Perth Wildcats 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Melbourne United 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Perth Wildcats 3–3 Melbourne United (6 last)

Perth Wildcats95-77Melbourne United
Perth Wildcats73-74Melbourne United
Perth Wildcats96-84Melbourne United
Melbourne United98-87Perth Wildcats
Melbourne United113-112Perth Wildcats
Perth Wildcats96-89Melbourne United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Perth Wildcats 1526 · Melbourne United 1516

	Perth Wildcats	Melbourne United
Our model	64%	36%
Market	45%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 178.5 points · Bet365 line 185.5 · -7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points178.5Perth Wildcats 89.1 · Melbourne United 89.4

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Perth Wildcats	Melbourne United
Points F\|A (Last 10)	91.5 / 94.6	90.1 / 88.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	93.6 / 92.8	93.2 / 94.4
Est. result	89	89

Est. total178.5

Line O/U185.5

Diff.7

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.10

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.91

2 (-1.5)1.91

Line ⓘ

Over 185.51.91

Under 185.51.91

Diff.: 3.2 · Est. total: 182.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
2	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 4.8%

Time*	1	2
04:33 +15’	2.10	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Perth Wildcats 3–0–3 Melbourne United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Australia NBL	Perth Wildcats	95-77	Melbourne United
25/01/26 Australia NBL	Perth Wildcats	73-74	Melbourne United
04/12/25 Australia NBL	Perth Wildcats	96-84	Melbourne United
23/11/25 Australia NBL	Melbourne United	98-87	Perth Wildcats
04/03/25 Australia NBL	Melbourne United	113-112	Perth Wildcats
01/03/25 Australia NBL	Perth Wildcats	96-89	Melbourne United

Standings · Australia NBL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Tasmania JackJumpers	7	5	2	684	663
2	Sydney Kings	6	4	2	606	535
3	Perth Wildcats	6	4	2	547	564
4	New Zealand Breakers	8	4	4	737	712
5	Brisbane Bullets	6	3	3	574	584
6	Adelaide 36ers	8	4	4	710	726
7	Cairns Taipans	8	4	4	724	780
8	Melbourne United	7	3	4	647	630
9	SE Melbourne Phoenix	8	3	5	772	751
10	Illawarra Hawks	8	2	6	789	845

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Perth Wildcats	Melbourne United
SE Melbourne Phoenix	92-88 W	104-99 W
Adelaide 36ers	98-97 W	96-91 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Melbourne United (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Perth Wildcats

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
17/10	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	81-102	L
10/10	New Zealand Breakers Australia NBL	100-84	W
02/10	SE Melbourne Phoenix Australia NBL	92-88	W
26/09	New Zealand Breakers Australia NBL	97-93	W
24/09	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	98-97	W
19/09	SE Melbourne Phoenix Australia NBL	79-100	L
14/03	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	75-89	L
11/03	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	104-105	L
07/03	Melbourne United Australia NBL	95-77	W
04/03	SE Melbourne Phoenix Australia NBL	94-111	L

Melbourne United

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
18/10	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	89-91	L
10/10	SE Melbourne Phoenix Australia NBL	104-99	W
07/10	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	96-91	W
03/10	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	95-107	L
01/10	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	82-84	L
24/09	SE Melbourne Phoenix Australia NBL	86-61	W
19/09	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	95-97	L
07/03	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	77-95	L
05/03	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	82-68	W
19/02	SE Melbourne Phoenix Australia NBL	95-91	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Perth Wildcats vs Melbourne United?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Perth Wildcats 49% · Melbourne United 51%).

How many points are expected in Perth Wildcats vs Melbourne United?

The model estimates 178.5 total points (Perth Wildcats 89.1 · Melbourne United 89.4).