Basketball · Australia NBL · 02/11, 09:30

Prediction: Melbourne United vs New Zealand Breakers

Team pages: Melbourne United · New Zealand Breakers

Prediction summary

Estimated points

184.8Total

Melbourne United96.5

New Zealand Breakers88.3

1X2

72% 28%

Melbourne United New Zealand Breakers

Recent form · 10 last

Melbourne United 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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New Zealand Breakers 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Melbourne United 4–2 New Zealand Breakers (6 last)

New Zealand Breakers97-95Melbourne United
Melbourne United104-88New Zealand Breakers
Melbourne United114-82New Zealand Breakers
New Zealand Breakers89-91Melbourne United
New Zealand Breakers70-97Melbourne United
Melbourne United79-113New Zealand Breakers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Melbourne United 1525 · New Zealand Breakers 1498

	Melbourne United	New Zealand Breakers
Our model	66%	34%
Market	73%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 184.8 points · Bet365 line 191.5 · -6.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points184.8Melbourne United 96.5 · New Zealand Breakers 88.3

Match keys

Melbourne United is a clear favourite (72% market).
H2H favours Melbourne United: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Melbourne United	New Zealand Breakers
Points F\|A (Last 10)	96.7 / 92.5	92.2 / 90.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	102.6 / 97	92.6 / 98.6
Est. result	97	88

Est. total184.8

Line O/U191.5

Diff.6.7

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.30

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-7.5)1.91

2 (+7.5)1.91

Line ⓘ

Over 191.51.91

Under 191.51.91

Diff.: 5.5 · Est. total: 186

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 4.7%

Time*	1	2
23:19 +31’	1.30	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Melbourne United 4–0–2 New Zealand Breakers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/01/26 Australia NBL	New Zealand Breakers	97-95	Melbourne United
19/10/25 Australia NBL	Melbourne United	104-88	New Zealand Breakers
21/09/25 Australia NBL	Melbourne United	114-82	New Zealand Breakers
13/01/25 Australia NBL	New Zealand Breakers	89-91	Melbourne United
05/12/24 Australia NBL	New Zealand Breakers	70-97	Melbourne United
04/11/24 Australia NBL	Melbourne United	79-113	New Zealand Breakers

Standings · Australia NBL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Sydney Kings	10	7	3	979	881
2	Tasmania JackJumpers	9	6	3	858	819
3	Perth Wildcats	9	5	4	839	870
4	Cairns Taipans	11	6	5	1014	1062
5	Melbourne United	10	5	5	967	925
6	Adelaide 36ers	10	5	5	912	935
7	SE Melbourne Phoenix	9	4	5	880	845
8	Brisbane Bullets	9	4	5	842	878
9	New Zealand Breakers	10	4	6	922	906
10	Illawarra Hawks	11	3	8	1057	1149

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Melbourne United	New Zealand Breakers
Cairns Taipans	113-97 W	84-86 L
Sydney Kings	105-95 W	102-101 W
Perth Wildcats	102-103 L	84-100 L
Illawarra Hawks	89-91 L	95-81 W
Adelaide 36ers	96-91 W	101-108 L
Tasmania JackJumpers	82-84 L	92-98 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Melbourne United (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Melbourne United

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/10	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	113-97	W
25/10	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	105-95	W
23/10	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	102-103	L
18/10	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	89-91	L
10/10	SE Melbourne Phoenix Australia NBL	104-99	W
07/10	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	96-91	W
03/10	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	95-107	L
01/10	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	82-84	L
24/09	SE Melbourne Phoenix Australia NBL	86-61	W
19/09	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	95-97	L

New Zealand Breakers

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
30/10	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	101-108	L
25/10	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	84-86	L
18/10	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	92-98	L
14/10	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	102-101	W
10/10	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	84-100	L
04/10	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	88-72	W
30/09	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	98-75	W
26/09	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	93-97	L
22/09	Brisbane Bullets Australia NBL	85-88	L
20/09	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	95-81	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Melbourne United vs New Zealand Breakers?

Our model gives 72% to Melbourne United.

How many points are expected in Melbourne United vs New Zealand Breakers?

The model estimates 184.8 total points (Melbourne United 96.5 · New Zealand Breakers 88.3).