Basketball · Australia NBL · 01/11, 05:00

Prediction: SE Melbourne Phoenix vs Tasmania JackJumpers

Team pages: SE Melbourne Phoenix · Tasmania JackJumpers

Prediction summary

Estimated points

188.7Total

SE Melbourne Phoenix96.9

Tasmania JackJumpers91.9

1X2

64% 36%

SE Melbourne Phoenix Tasmania JackJumpers

Recent form · 10 last

SE Melbourne Phoenix 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Tasmania JackJumpers 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

SE Melbourne Phoenix 3–3 Tasmania JackJumpers (6 last)

Tasmania JackJumpers96-91SE Melbourne Phoenix
SE Melbourne Phoenix120-104Tasmania JackJumpers
Tasmania JackJumpers87-84SE Melbourne Phoenix
SE Melbourne Phoenix81-89Tasmania JackJumpers
Tasmania JackJumpers102-103SE Melbourne Phoenix
SE Melbourne Phoenix116-80Tasmania JackJumpers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SE Melbourne Phoenix 1489 · Tasmania JackJumpers 1517

	SE Melbourne Phoenix	Tasmania JackJumpers
Our model	59%	41%
Market	65%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 188.7 points · Bet365 line 189.5 · -0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points188.7SE Melbourne Phoenix 96.9 · Tasmania JackJumpers 91.9

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	SE Melbourne Phoenix	Tasmania JackJumpers
Points F\|A (Last 10)	97.6 / 95.3	92.6 / 90.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	108 / 98.4	96.4 / 90.8
Est. result	97	92

Est. total188.7

Line O/U189.5

Diff.0.8

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.47

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-4.5)1.85

2 (+4.5)1.97

Line ⓘ

Over 189.51.91

Under 189.51.91

Diff.: 1.7 · Est. total: 187.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.47 → 1.47	Bet365 1.47
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.1%

Time*	1	2
03:51 +6’	1.47	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SE Melbourne Phoenix 3–0–3 Tasmania JackJumpers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/09/26 Australia NBL	Tasmania JackJumpers	96-91	SE Melbourne Phoenix
14/02/26 Australia NBL	SE Melbourne Phoenix	120-104	Tasmania JackJumpers
29/12/25 Australia NBL	Tasmania JackJumpers	87-84	SE Melbourne Phoenix
10/12/25 Australia NBL	SE Melbourne Phoenix	81-89	Tasmania JackJumpers
06/11/25 Australia NBL	Tasmania JackJumpers	102-103	SE Melbourne Phoenix
25/01/25 Australia NBL	SE Melbourne Phoenix	116-80	Tasmania JackJumpers

Standings · Australia NBL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Sydney Kings	10	7	3	979	881
2	Tasmania JackJumpers	9	6	3	858	819
3	Perth Wildcats	8	5	3	741	765
4	Cairns Taipans	10	6	4	917	949
5	Adelaide 36ers	10	5	5	912	935
6	SE Melbourne Phoenix	9	4	5	880	845
7	Melbourne United	9	4	5	854	828
8	Brisbane Bullets	9	4	5	842	878
9	New Zealand Breakers	10	4	6	922	906
10	Illawarra Hawks	10	2	8	952	1051

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SE Melbourne Phoenix	Tasmania JackJumpers
Adelaide 36ers	108-94 W	88-94 L
Cairns Taipans	115-83 W	87-93 L
Brisbane Bullets	105-115 L	106-85 W
Melbourne United	99-104 L	84-82 W
Illawarra Hawks	113-96 W	122-112 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: SE Melbourne Phoenix (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SE Melbourne Phoenix

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
24/10	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	108-94	W
17/10	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	115-83	W
15/10	Brisbane Bullets Australia NBL	105-115	L
10/10	Melbourne United Australia NBL	99-104	L
04/10	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	113-96	W
02/10	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	88-92	L
24/09	Melbourne United Australia NBL	61-86	L
21/09	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	91-96	L
19/09	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	100-79	W
17/03	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	96-108	L

Tasmania JackJumpers

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
30/10	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	68-71	L
21/10	Brisbane Bullets Australia NBL	106-85	W
18/10	New Zealand Breakers Australia NBL	98-92	W
16/10	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	88-94	L
09/10	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	122-112	W
03/10	Brisbane Bullets Australia NBL	109-99	W
01/10	Melbourne United Australia NBL	84-82	W
23/09	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	87-93	L
21/09	SE Melbourne Phoenix Australia NBL	96-91	W
05/03	Melbourne United Australia NBL	68-82	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SE Melbourne Phoenix vs Tasmania JackJumpers?

Our model gives 64% to SE Melbourne Phoenix.

How many points are expected in SE Melbourne Phoenix vs Tasmania JackJumpers?

The model estimates 188.7 total points (SE Melbourne Phoenix 96.9 · Tasmania JackJumpers 91.9).