Basketball · Australia NBL · 24/10, 10:30

Prediction: SE Melbourne Phoenix vs Adelaide 36ers

Prediction summary

Estimated points

189.8Total

SE Melbourne Phoenix96.1

Adelaide 36ers93.7

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

57% 43%

SE Melbourne Phoenix Adelaide 36ers

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

SE Melbourne Phoenix 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Adelaide 36ers 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

SE Melbourne Phoenix 3–3 Adelaide 36ers (6 last)

Adelaide 36ers108-96SE Melbourne Phoenix
SE Melbourne Phoenix101-92Adelaide 36ers
Adelaide 36ers104-97SE Melbourne Phoenix
Adelaide 36ers77-97SE Melbourne Phoenix
Adelaide 36ers89-108SE Melbourne Phoenix
SE Melbourne Phoenix81-94Adelaide 36ers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SE Melbourne Phoenix 1491 · Adelaide 36ers 1492

	SE Melbourne Phoenix	Adelaide 36ers
Our model	63%	37%
Market	56%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 189.8 points · Bet365 line 188.5 · +1.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points189.8SE Melbourne Phoenix 96.1 · Adelaide 36ers 93.7

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	SE Melbourne Phoenix	Adelaide 36ers
Points F\|A (Last 10)	96.9 / 95.1	90.3 / 93
Points F\|A (Last 5)	104 / 98	86.6 / 92.8
Est. result	96	94

Est. total189.8

Line O/U188.5

Diff.1.3

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.72

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.87

2 (+1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 188.51.91

Under 188.51.91

Diff.: 0.85 · Est. total: 187.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.72 → 1.72	Bet365 1.72
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 4.7%

Time*	1	2
04:46 +3’	1.72	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SE Melbourne Phoenix 3–0–3 Adelaide 36ers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/03/26 Australia NBL	Adelaide 36ers	108-96	SE Melbourne Phoenix
14/03/26 Australia NBL	SE Melbourne Phoenix	101-92	Adelaide 36ers
10/03/26 Australia NBL	Adelaide 36ers	104-97	SE Melbourne Phoenix
31/01/26 Australia NBL	Adelaide 36ers	77-97	SE Melbourne Phoenix
18/01/26 Australia NBL	Adelaide 36ers	89-108	SE Melbourne Phoenix
22/11/25 Australia NBL	SE Melbourne Phoenix	81-94	Adelaide 36ers

Standings · Australia NBL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Tasmania JackJumpers	7	5	2	684	663
2	Sydney Kings	6	4	2	606	535
3	Perth Wildcats	6	4	2	547	564
4	New Zealand Breakers	8	4	4	737	712
5	Brisbane Bullets	6	3	3	574	584
6	Adelaide 36ers	8	4	4	710	726
7	Cairns Taipans	8	4	4	724	780
8	Melbourne United	7	3	4	647	630
9	SE Melbourne Phoenix	8	3	5	772	751
10	Illawarra Hawks	8	2	6	789	845

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SE Melbourne Phoenix	Adelaide 36ers
Cairns Taipans	115-83 W	83-69 W
Melbourne United	99-104 L	91-96 L
Illawarra Hawks	113-96 W	92-114 L
Perth Wildcats	88-92 L	97-98 L
Tasmania JackJumpers	91-96 L	94-88 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SE Melbourne Phoenix

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
17/10	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	115-83	W
15/10	Brisbane Bullets Australia NBL	105-115	L
10/10	Melbourne United Australia NBL	99-104	L
04/10	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	113-96	W
02/10	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	88-92	L
24/09	Melbourne United Australia NBL	61-86	L
21/09	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	91-96	L
19/09	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	100-79	W
17/03	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	96-108	L
14/03	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	101-92	W

Adelaide 36ers

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
16/10	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	94-88	W
11/10	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	84-78	W
07/10	Melbourne United Australia NBL	91-96	L
04/10	New Zealand Breakers Australia NBL	72-88	L
02/10	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	92-114	L
27/09	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	83-69	W
24/09	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	97-98	L
19/09	Melbourne United Australia NBL	97-95	W
05/04	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	101-113	L
01/04	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	92-91	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SE Melbourne Phoenix vs Adelaide 36ers?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (SE Melbourne Phoenix 57% · Adelaide 36ers 43%).

How many points are expected in SE Melbourne Phoenix vs Adelaide 36ers?

The model estimates 189.8 total points (SE Melbourne Phoenix 96.1 · Adelaide 36ers 93.7).