Basketball · Australia NBL · 25/10, 07:00

Prediction: Melbourne United vs Sydney Kings

Team pages: Melbourne United

Prediction summary

Estimated points

185.3Total

Melbourne United92.1

Sydney Kings93.2

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

47% 53%

Melbourne United Sydney Kings

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Markets

Under 193.5 points 65%

Recent form · 10 last

Melbourne United 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLWWLL

Sydney Kings 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWLLWW

Head-to-head

Melbourne United 3–3 Sydney Kings (6 last)

Sydney Kings97-94Melbourne United
Melbourne United86-92Sydney Kings
Melbourne United92-95Sydney Kings
Sydney Kings93-107Melbourne United
Sydney Kings88-90Melbourne United
Melbourne United101-98Sydney Kings

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Melbourne United 1473 · Sydney Kings 1574

	Melbourne United	Sydney Kings
Our model	48%	52%
Market	46%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 185.3 points · Bet365 line 193.5 · -8.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points185.3Melbourne United 92.1 · Sydney Kings 93.2

Over / Under 193.5Under · 65%recent trend · ~187 pts · strength 7

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Melbourne United	Sydney Kings
Points F\|A (Last 10)	90.8 / 89.6	102.4 / 90.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	97.2 / 98.2	96.4 / 85.4
Est. result	92	93

Est. total185.3

Line O/U193.5

Diff.8.2

Over / Under35% / 65%

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.05

21.78

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.91

2 (-1.5)1.91

Line ⓘ

Over 193.51.87

Under 193.51.95

Diff.: 6.95 · Est. total: 186.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
2	1.78 → 1.78	Bet365 1.78

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5%

Time*	1	2
00:46 +3’	2.05	1.78

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Melbourne United 3–0–3 Sydney Kings

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/01/26 Australia NBL	Sydney Kings	97-94	Melbourne United
14/12/25 Australia NBL	Melbourne United	86-92	Sydney Kings
03/11/25 Australia NBL	Melbourne United	92-95	Sydney Kings
08/10/25 Australia NBL	Sydney Kings	93-107	Melbourne United
09/01/25 Australia NBL	Sydney Kings	88-90	Melbourne United
01/12/24 Australia NBL	Melbourne United	101-98	Sydney Kings

Standings · Australia NBL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Tasmania JackJumpers	8	6	2	790	748
2	Sydney Kings	7	5	2	714	617
3	Perth Wildcats	7	5	2	650	666
4	New Zealand Breakers	8	4	4	737	712
5	Adelaide 36ers	8	4	4	710	726
6	Cairns Taipans	8	4	4	724	780
7	Brisbane Bullets	7	3	4	659	690
8	SE Melbourne Phoenix	8	3	5	772	751
9	Melbourne United	8	3	5	749	733
10	Illawarra Hawks	9	2	7	871	953

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Melbourne United	Sydney Kings
Perth Wildcats	102-103 L	102-81 W
Illawarra Hawks	89-91 L	108-82 W
Adelaide 36ers	96-91 W	78-84 L
Cairns Taipans	95-107 L	111-90 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sydney Kings (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Melbourne United

WLLWLLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/10	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	102-103	L
18/10	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	89-91	L
10/10	SE Melbourne Phoenix Australia NBL	104-99	W
07/10	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	96-91	W
03/10	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	95-107	L
01/10	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	82-84	L
24/09	SE Melbourne Phoenix Australia NBL	86-61	W
19/09	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	95-97	L
07/03	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	77-95	L
05/03	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	82-68	W

Sydney Kings

WLWWWWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
22/10	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	108-82	W
17/10	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	102-81	W
14/10	New Zealand Breakers Australia NBL	101-102	L
11/10	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	78-84	L
30/09	Brisbane Bullets Australia NBL	93-78	W
27/09	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	121-100	W
20/09	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	111-90	W
05/04	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	113-101	W
01/04	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	91-92	L
29/03	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	106-93	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Melbourne United vs Sydney Kings?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Melbourne United 47% · Sydney Kings 53%).

How many points are expected in Melbourne United vs Sydney Kings?

The model estimates 185.3 total points (Melbourne United 92.1 · Sydney Kings 93.2).

Over or under 193.5 points?

Recent history points to under 193.5 points (65%).