Basketball · Australia NBL · 30/10, 07:30

Prediction: New Zealand Breakers vs Adelaide 36ers

Team pages: New Zealand Breakers · Adelaide 36ers

Prediction summary

Estimated points

185.3Total

New Zealand Breakers93

Adelaide 36ers92.3

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

52% 48%

New Zealand Breakers Adelaide 36ers

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

New Zealand Breakers 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWLWLL

Adelaide 36ers 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLLWWL

Head-to-head

New Zealand Breakers 2–4 Adelaide 36ers (6 last)

Adelaide 36ers72-88New Zealand Breakers
Adelaide 36ers107-111New Zealand Breakers
Adelaide 36ers92-89New Zealand Breakers
New Zealand Breakers110-112Adelaide 36ers
New Zealand Breakers79-83Adelaide 36ers
Adelaide 36ers94-78New Zealand Breakers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New Zealand Breakers 1509 · Adelaide 36ers 1507

	New Zealand Breakers	Adelaide 36ers
Our model	63%	37%
Market	49%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 185.3 points · Bet365 line 181.5 · +3.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points185.3New Zealand Breakers 93 · Adelaide 36ers 92.3

Match keys

H2H favours Adelaide 36ers: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	New Zealand Breakers	Adelaide 36ers
Points F\|A (Last 10)	93.2 / 90.5	90.5 / 94.7
Points F\|A (Last 5)	90 / 91.4	87 / 91.6
Est. result	93	92

Est. total185.3

Line O/U181.5

Diff.3.8

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.95

21.87

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.80

2 (-1.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 181.51.91

Under 181.51.91

Diff.: 2.95 · Est. total: 184.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
2	1.87 → 1.87	Bet365 1.87

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 4.7%

Time*	1	2
02:46 +1’	1.95	1.87

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · New Zealand Breakers 2–0–4 Adelaide 36ers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/10/26 Australia NBL	Adelaide 36ers	72-88	New Zealand Breakers
22/02/26 Australia NBL	Adelaide 36ers	107-111	New Zealand Breakers
14/02/26 Australia NBL	Adelaide 36ers	92-89	New Zealand Breakers
23/01/26 Australia NBL	New Zealand Breakers	110-112	Adelaide 36ers
06/11/25 Australia NBL	New Zealand Breakers	79-83	Adelaide 36ers
26/01/25 Australia NBL	Adelaide 36ers	94-78	New Zealand Breakers

Standings · Australia NBL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Tasmania JackJumpers	8	6	2	790	748
2	Perth Wildcats	7	5	2	650	666
3	Sydney Kings	8	5	3	809	722
4	Cairns Taipans	9	5	4	810	864
5	Brisbane Bullets	8	4	4	757	771
6	SE Melbourne Phoenix	9	4	5	880	845
7	Melbourne United	9	4	5	854	828
8	New Zealand Breakers	9	4	5	821	798
9	Adelaide 36ers	9	4	5	804	834
10	Illawarra Hawks	10	2	8	952	1051

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New Zealand Breakers	Adelaide 36ers
Cairns Taipans	84-86 L	83-69 W
Tasmania JackJumpers	92-98 L	94-88 W
Sydney Kings	102-101 W	84-78 W
Perth Wildcats	84-100 L	97-98 L
Illawarra Hawks	95-81 W	92-114 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Adelaide 36ers (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

New Zealand Breakers

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
25/10	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	84-86	L
18/10	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	92-98	L
14/10	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	102-101	W
10/10	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	84-100	L
04/10	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	88-72	W
30/09	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	98-75	W
26/09	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	93-97	L
22/09	Brisbane Bullets Australia NBL	85-88	L
20/09	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	95-81	W
22/02	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	111-107	W

Adelaide 36ers

LWLWLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
24/10	SE Melbourne Phoenix Australia NBL	94-108	L
16/10	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	94-88	W
11/10	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	84-78	W
07/10	Melbourne United Australia NBL	91-96	L
04/10	New Zealand Breakers Australia NBL	72-88	L
02/10	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	92-114	L
27/09	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	83-69	W
24/09	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	97-98	L
19/09	Melbourne United Australia NBL	97-95	W
05/04	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	101-113	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New Zealand Breakers vs Adelaide 36ers?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (New Zealand Breakers 52% · Adelaide 36ers 48%).

How many points are expected in New Zealand Breakers vs Adelaide 36ers?

The model estimates 185.3 total points (New Zealand Breakers 93 · Adelaide 36ers 92.3).