Basketball · Australia NBL · 08/11, 05:00

Prediction: Sydney Kings vs SE Melbourne Phoenix

Team pages: Sydney Kings · SE Melbourne Phoenix

Prediction summary

Estimated points

192Total

Sydney Kings99.9

SE Melbourne Phoenix92.1

1X2

71% 29%

Sydney Kings SE Melbourne Phoenix

Recent form · 10 last

Sydney Kings 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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SE Melbourne Phoenix 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sydney Kings 4–2 SE Melbourne Phoenix (6 last)

SE Melbourne Phoenix88-114Sydney Kings
Sydney Kings117-124SE Melbourne Phoenix
SE Melbourne Phoenix112-95Sydney Kings
SE Melbourne Phoenix92-103Sydney Kings
Sydney Kings110-101SE Melbourne Phoenix
Sydney Kings74-69SE Melbourne Phoenix

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sydney Kings 1570 · SE Melbourne Phoenix 1473

	Sydney Kings	SE Melbourne Phoenix
Our model	75%	25%
Market	70%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 192 points · Bet365 line 192.5 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points192Sydney Kings 99.9 · SE Melbourne Phoenix 92.1

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sydney Kings (rating 1570 vs 1473).
Sydney Kings is a clear favourite (71% market).
H2H favours Sydney Kings: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Sydney Kings	SE Melbourne Phoenix
Points F\|A (Last 10)	97.9 / 88.1	96.9 / 94.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	95 / 85.4	103.2 / 98.8
Est. result	100	92

Est. total192

Line O/U192.5

Diff.0.5

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.36

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-6.5)1.91

2 (+6.5)1.91

Line ⓘ

Over 192.51.91

Under 192.51.91

Diff.: 3.9 · Est. total: 188.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 4.8%

Time*	1	2
02:09 +40’	1.36	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sydney Kings 4–0–2 SE Melbourne Phoenix

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Australia NBL	SE Melbourne Phoenix	88-114	Sydney Kings
05/01/26 Australia NBL	Sydney Kings	117-124	SE Melbourne Phoenix
23/10/25 Australia NBL	SE Melbourne Phoenix	112-95	Sydney Kings
22/01/25 Australia NBL	SE Melbourne Phoenix	92-103	Sydney Kings
02/01/25 Australia NBL	Sydney Kings	110-101	SE Melbourne Phoenix
08/11/24 Australia NBL	Sydney Kings	74-69	SE Melbourne Phoenix

Standings · Australia NBL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Sydney Kings	10	7	3	979	881
2	Tasmania JackJumpers	10	7	3	956	908
3	Perth Wildcats	9	5	4	839	870
4	Cairns Taipans	11	6	5	1014	1062
5	Melbourne United	10	5	5	967	925
6	Brisbane Bullets	10	5	5	938	967
7	Adelaide 36ers	11	5	6	1001	1031
8	SE Melbourne Phoenix	10	4	6	969	943
9	New Zealand Breakers	10	4	6	922	906
10	Illawarra Hawks	11	3	8	1057	1149

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sydney Kings	SE Melbourne Phoenix
Tasmania JackJumpers	71-68 W	89-98 L
Perth Wildcats	99-91 W	88-92 L
Melbourne United	95-105 L	99-104 L
Illawarra Hawks	108-82 W	113-96 W
Adelaide 36ers	78-84 L	108-94 W
Brisbane Bullets	93-78 W	105-115 L
Cairns Taipans	111-90 W	115-83 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Sydney Kings (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sydney Kings

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
30/10	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	71-68	W
28/10	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	99-91	W
25/10	Melbourne United Australia NBL	95-105	L
22/10	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	108-82	W
17/10	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	102-81	W
14/10	New Zealand Breakers Australia NBL	101-102	L
11/10	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	78-84	L
30/09	Brisbane Bullets Australia NBL	93-78	W
27/09	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	121-100	W
20/09	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	111-90	W

SE Melbourne Phoenix

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
01/11	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	89-98	L
24/10	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	108-94	W
17/10	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	115-83	W
15/10	Brisbane Bullets Australia NBL	105-115	L
10/10	Melbourne United Australia NBL	99-104	L
04/10	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	113-96	W
02/10	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	88-92	L
24/09	Melbourne United Australia NBL	61-86	L
21/09	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	91-96	L
19/09	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	100-79	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sydney Kings vs SE Melbourne Phoenix?

Our model gives 71% to Sydney Kings.

How many points are expected in Sydney Kings vs SE Melbourne Phoenix?

The model estimates 192 total points (Sydney Kings 99.9 · SE Melbourne Phoenix 92.1).