Basketball · Australia NBL · 07/11, 07:30

Prediction: Adelaide 36ers vs Illawarra Hawks

Team pages: Adelaide 36ers · Illawarra Hawks

Prediction summary

Estimated points

191.7Total

Adelaide 36ers99.5

Illawarra Hawks92.2

1X2

70% 30%

Adelaide 36ers Illawarra Hawks

Recent form · 10 last

Adelaide 36ers 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Illawarra Hawks 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Adelaide 36ers 4–2 Illawarra Hawks (6 last)

Illawarra Hawks114-92Adelaide 36ers
Illawarra Hawks100-99Adelaide 36ers
Illawarra Hawks78-84Adelaide 36ers
Adelaide 36ers97-85Illawarra Hawks
Adelaide 36ers90-88Illawarra Hawks
Adelaide 36ers91-88Illawarra Hawks

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Adelaide 36ers 1493 · Illawarra Hawks 1460

	Adelaide 36ers	Illawarra Hawks
Our model	67%	33%
Market	70%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 191.7 points · Bet365 line 196.5 · -4.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points191.7Adelaide 36ers 99.5 · Illawarra Hawks 92.2

Match keys

Adelaide 36ers is a clear favourite (70% market).
H2H favours Adelaide 36ers: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Adelaide 36ers	Illawarra Hawks
Points F\|A (Last 10)	90.4 / 93.6	98.8 / 104.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	93.8 / 94.2	93.2 / 97.6
Est. result	100	92

Est. total191.7

Line O/U196.5

Diff.4.8

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.36

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-6.5)1.91

2 (+6.5)1.91

Line ⓘ

Over 196.51.91

Under 196.51.91

Diff.: 2.8 · Est. total: 193.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 4.8%

Time*	1	2
00:00 +48’	1.36	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Adelaide 36ers 4–0–2 Illawarra Hawks

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/10/26 Australia NBL	Illawarra Hawks	114-92	Adelaide 36ers
05/02/26 Australia NBL	Illawarra Hawks	100-99	Adelaide 36ers
20/12/25 Australia NBL	Illawarra Hawks	78-84	Adelaide 36ers
19/11/25 Australia NBL	Adelaide 36ers	97-85	Illawarra Hawks
02/11/25 Australia NBL	Adelaide 36ers	90-88	Illawarra Hawks
13/01/25 Australia NBL	Adelaide 36ers	91-88	Illawarra Hawks

Standings · Australia NBL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Sydney Kings	10	7	3	979	881
2	Tasmania JackJumpers	10	7	3	956	908
3	Melbourne United	11	6	5	1061	999
4	Brisbane Bullets	11	6	5	1047	1071
5	Perth Wildcats	10	5	5	943	979
6	Cairns Taipans	12	6	6	1109	1169
7	Adelaide 36ers	11	5	6	1001	1031
8	SE Melbourne Phoenix	10	4	6	969	943
9	New Zealand Breakers	11	4	7	996	1000
10	Illawarra Hawks	12	4	8	1164	1244

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Adelaide 36ers	Illawarra Hawks
Brisbane Bullets	89-96 L	81-98 L
SE Melbourne Phoenix	94-108 L	96-113 L
Tasmania JackJumpers	94-88 W	112-122 L
Sydney Kings	84-78 W	82-108 L
Melbourne United	91-96 L	91-89 W
Cairns Taipans	83-69 W	107-95 W
Perth Wildcats	97-98 L	105-98 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Adelaide 36ers (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Adelaide 36ers

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
01/11	Brisbane Bullets Australia NBL	89-96	L
30/10	New Zealand Breakers Australia NBL	108-101	W
24/10	SE Melbourne Phoenix Australia NBL	94-108	L
16/10	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	94-88	W
11/10	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	84-78	W
07/10	Melbourne United Australia NBL	91-96	L
04/10	New Zealand Breakers Australia NBL	72-88	L
02/10	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	92-114	L
27/09	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	83-69	W
24/09	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	97-98	L

Illawarra Hawks

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
05/11	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	107-95	W
31/10	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	105-98	W
24/10	Brisbane Bullets Australia NBL	81-98	L
22/10	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	82-108	L
18/10	Melbourne United Australia NBL	91-89	W
11/10	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	100-110	L
09/10	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	112-122	L
04/10	SE Melbourne Phoenix Australia NBL	96-113	L
02/10	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	114-92	W
27/09	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	100-121	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Adelaide 36ers vs Illawarra Hawks?

Our model gives 70% to Adelaide 36ers.

How many points are expected in Adelaide 36ers vs Illawarra Hawks?

The model estimates 191.7 total points (Adelaide 36ers 99.5 · Illawarra Hawks 92.2).