Basketball · Australia NBL · 06/11, 09:30

Prediction: Tasmania JackJumpers vs New Zealand Breakers

Team pages: Tasmania JackJumpers · New Zealand Breakers

Prediction summary

Estimated points

182.2Total

Tasmania JackJumpers94.8

New Zealand Breakers87.4

1X2

70% 30%

Tasmania JackJumpers New Zealand Breakers

Recent form · 10 last

Tasmania JackJumpers 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWWLWWLW

New Zealand Breakers 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWLLLL

Head-to-head

Tasmania JackJumpers 2–4 New Zealand Breakers (6 last)

Tasmania JackJumpers98-92New Zealand Breakers
Tasmania JackJumpers91-89New Zealand Breakers
Tasmania JackJumpers80-81New Zealand Breakers
New Zealand Breakers99-86Tasmania JackJumpers
New Zealand Breakers82-65Tasmania JackJumpers
New Zealand Breakers85-75Tasmania JackJumpers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tasmania JackJumpers 1531 · New Zealand Breakers 1485

	Tasmania JackJumpers	New Zealand Breakers
Our model	69%	31%
Market	70%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 182.2 points · Bet365 line 187.5 · -5.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points182.2Tasmania JackJumpers 94.8 · New Zealand Breakers 87.4

Match keys

Tasmania JackJumpers is a clear favourite (70% market).
H2H favours New Zealand Breakers: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Tasmania JackJumpers	New Zealand Breakers
Points F\|A (Last 10)	95.6 / 90.8	90.1 / 91.9
Points F\|A (Last 5)	91.6 / 86.2	90.6 / 97.4
Est. result	95	87

Est. total182.2

Line O/U187.5

Diff.5.3

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.36

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-6.5)1.91

2 (+6.5)1.91

Line ⓘ

Over 187.51.91

Under 187.51.91

Diff.: 3.3 · Est. total: 184.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 4.8%

Time*	1	2
23:44 +4’	1.36	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tasmania JackJumpers 2–0–4 New Zealand Breakers

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
18/10/26 Australia NBL	Tasmania JackJumpers	98-92	New Zealand Breakers
01/02/26 Australia NBL	Tasmania JackJumpers	91-89	New Zealand Breakers
26/12/25 Australia NBL	Tasmania JackJumpers	80-81	New Zealand Breakers
06/12/25 Australia NBL	New Zealand Breakers	99-86	Tasmania JackJumpers
17/10/25 Australia NBL	New Zealand Breakers	82-65	Tasmania JackJumpers
16/01/25 Australia NBL	New Zealand Breakers	85-75	Tasmania JackJumpers

Standings · Australia NBL

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Sydney Kings	10	7	3	979	881
2	Tasmania JackJumpers	10	7	3	956	908
3	Perth Wildcats	9	5	4	839	870
4	Melbourne United	11	6	5	1061	999
5	Cairns Taipans	11	6	5	1014	1062
6	Brisbane Bullets	10	5	5	938	967
7	Adelaide 36ers	11	5	6	1001	1031
8	SE Melbourne Phoenix	10	4	6	969	943
9	New Zealand Breakers	11	4	7	996	1000
10	Illawarra Hawks	11	3	8	1057	1149

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tasmania JackJumpers	New Zealand Breakers
Sydney Kings	68-71 L	102-101 W
Brisbane Bullets	106-85 W	85-88 L
Adelaide 36ers	88-94 L	101-108 L
Melbourne United	84-82 W	74-94 L
Cairns Taipans	87-93 L	84-86 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Tasmania JackJumpers (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tasmania JackJumpers

WLWWWLWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
01/11	SE Melbourne Phoenix Australia NBL	98-89	W
30/10	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	68-71	L
21/10	Brisbane Bullets Australia NBL	106-85	W
18/10	New Zealand Breakers Australia NBL	98-92	W
16/10	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	88-94	L
09/10	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	122-112	W
03/10	Brisbane Bullets Australia NBL	109-99	W
01/10	Melbourne United Australia NBL	84-82	W
23/09	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	87-93	L
21/09	SE Melbourne Phoenix Australia NBL	96-91	W

New Zealand Breakers

LLWWLWLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
02/11	Melbourne United Australia NBL	74-94	L
30/10	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	101-108	L
25/10	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	84-86	L
18/10	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	92-98	L
14/10	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	102-101	W
10/10	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	84-100	L
04/10	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	88-72	W
30/09	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	98-75	W
26/09	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	93-97	L
22/09	Brisbane Bullets Australia NBL	85-88	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tasmania JackJumpers vs New Zealand Breakers?

Our model gives 70% to Tasmania JackJumpers.

How many points are expected in Tasmania JackJumpers vs New Zealand Breakers?

The model estimates 182.2 total points (Tasmania JackJumpers 94.8 · New Zealand Breakers 87.4).