Basketball · Australia NBL · 05/11, 09:30

Prediction: Cairns Taipans vs Illawarra Hawks

Team pages: Cairns Taipans · Illawarra Hawks

Prediction summary

Estimated points

193.2Total

Cairns Taipans98.7

Illawarra Hawks94.4

1X2

62% 38%

Cairns Taipans Illawarra Hawks

Recent form · 10 last

Cairns Taipans 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWLWWL

Illawarra Hawks 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLWLLW

Head-to-head

Cairns Taipans 4–2 Illawarra Hawks (6 last)

Illawarra Hawks100-110Cairns Taipans
Illawarra Hawks96-78Cairns Taipans
Illawarra Hawks76-93Cairns Taipans
Cairns Taipans90-107Illawarra Hawks
Cairns Taipans100-94Illawarra Hawks
Illawarra Hawks105-108Cairns Taipans

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cairns Taipans 1505 · Illawarra Hawks 1449

	Cairns Taipans	Illawarra Hawks
Our model	70%	30%
Market	60%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 193.2 points · Bet365 line 198.5 · -5.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points193.2Cairns Taipans 98.7 · Illawarra Hawks 94.4

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cairns Taipans (rating 1505 vs 1449).
H2H favours Cairns Taipans: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Cairns Taipans	Illawarra Hawks
Points F\|A (Last 10)	92.4 / 95.1	97.6 / 105.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	96.6 / 99.4	91.8 / 100.6
Est. result	99	94

Est. total193.2

Line O/U198.5

Diff.5.3

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.58

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.5)1.91

2 (+3.5)1.91

Line ⓘ

Over 198.51.91

Under 198.51.91

Diff.: 3.25 · Est. total: 195.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.58 → 1.58	Bet365 1.58
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5%

Time*	1	2
03:18 +29’	1.58	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Cairns Taipans 4–0–2 Illawarra Hawks

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
11/10/26 Australia NBL	Illawarra Hawks	100-110	Cairns Taipans
03/01/26 Australia NBL	Illawarra Hawks	96-78	Cairns Taipans
06/12/25 Australia NBL	Illawarra Hawks	76-93	Cairns Taipans
07/11/25 Australia NBL	Cairns Taipans	90-107	Illawarra Hawks
23/01/25 Australia NBL	Cairns Taipans	100-94	Illawarra Hawks
03/01/25 Australia NBL	Illawarra Hawks	105-108	Cairns Taipans

Standings · Australia NBL

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Sydney Kings	10	7	3	979	881
2	Tasmania JackJumpers	10	7	3	956	908
3	Perth Wildcats	9	5	4	839	870
4	Cairns Taipans	11	6	5	1014	1062
5	Melbourne United	10	5	5	967	925
6	Brisbane Bullets	10	5	5	938	967
7	Adelaide 36ers	11	5	6	1001	1031
8	SE Melbourne Phoenix	10	4	6	969	943
9	New Zealand Breakers	10	4	6	922	906
10	Illawarra Hawks	11	3	8	1057	1149

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cairns Taipans	Illawarra Hawks
Melbourne United	97-113 L	91-89 W
Brisbane Bullets	107-85 W	81-98 L
SE Melbourne Phoenix	83-115 L	96-113 L
Adelaide 36ers	69-83 L	114-92 W
Tasmania JackJumpers	93-87 W	112-122 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Illawarra Hawks (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cairns Taipans

WLLWWWLWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/10	Melbourne United Australia NBL	97-113	L
29/10	Brisbane Bullets Australia NBL	107-85	W
25/10	New Zealand Breakers Australia NBL	86-84	W
17/10	SE Melbourne Phoenix Australia NBL	83-115	L
11/10	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	110-100	W
08/10	Brisbane Bullets Australia NBL	97-91	W
03/10	Melbourne United Australia NBL	107-95	W
30/09	New Zealand Breakers Australia NBL	75-98	L
27/09	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	69-83	L
23/09	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	93-87	W

Illawarra Hawks

LLWLLLWLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
31/10	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	105-98	W
24/10	Brisbane Bullets Australia NBL	81-98	L
22/10	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	82-108	L
18/10	Melbourne United Australia NBL	91-89	W
11/10	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	100-110	L
09/10	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	112-122	L
04/10	SE Melbourne Phoenix Australia NBL	96-113	L
02/10	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	114-92	W
27/09	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	100-121	L
25/09	Brisbane Bullets Australia NBL	95-103	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cairns Taipans vs Illawarra Hawks?

Our model gives 62% to Cairns Taipans.

How many points are expected in Cairns Taipans vs Illawarra Hawks?

The model estimates 193.2 total points (Cairns Taipans 98.7 · Illawarra Hawks 94.4).