Basketball · Australia NBL · 07/11, 09:30

Prediction: Melbourne United vs Brisbane Bullets

Team pages: Melbourne United · Brisbane Bullets

Prediction summary

Estimated points

187.7Total

Melbourne United100.3

Brisbane Bullets87.5

1X2

82% 18%

Melbourne United Brisbane Bullets

Recent form · 10 last

Melbourne United 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLLWWW

Brisbane Bullets 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLWLWW

Head-to-head

Melbourne United 6–0 Brisbane Bullets (6 last)

Melbourne United98-66Brisbane Bullets
Brisbane Bullets87-92Melbourne United
Melbourne United99-93Brisbane Bullets
Brisbane Bullets86-95Melbourne United
Melbourne United98-60Brisbane Bullets
Brisbane Bullets88-115Melbourne United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Melbourne United 1561 · Brisbane Bullets 1483

	Melbourne United	Brisbane Bullets
Our model	72%	28%
Market	84%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 187.7 points · Bet365 line 193.5 · -5.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points187.7Melbourne United 100.3 · Brisbane Bullets 87.5

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Melbourne United (rating 1561 vs 1483).
Melbourne United is a clear favourite (82% market).
H2H favours Melbourne United: 6-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Melbourne United	Brisbane Bullets
Points F\|A (Last 10)	96.6 / 90.2	95.9 / 98.6
Points F\|A (Last 5)	100.6 / 92	94.6 / 97.4
Est. result	100	88

Est. total187.7

Line O/U193.5

Diff.5.8

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.13

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-11.5)1.91

2 (+11.5)1.91

Line ⓘ

Over 193.51.91

Under 193.51.91

Diff.: 2.85 · Est. total: 190.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.13 → 1.13	Bet365 1.13
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.2%

Time*	1	2
00:01 +47’	1.13	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Melbourne United 6–0–0 Brisbane Bullets

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/01/26 Australia NBL	Melbourne United	98-66	Brisbane Bullets
27/12/25 Australia NBL	Brisbane Bullets	87-92	Melbourne United
15/11/25 Australia NBL	Melbourne United	99-93	Brisbane Bullets
17/10/25 Australia NBL	Brisbane Bullets	86-95	Melbourne United
30/08/25 Club Friendlies	Melbourne United	98-60	Brisbane Bullets
26/01/25 Australia NBL	Brisbane Bullets	88-115	Melbourne United

Standings · Australia NBL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Sydney Kings	10	7	3	979	881
2	Tasmania JackJumpers	10	7	3	956	908
3	Melbourne United	11	6	5	1061	999
4	Brisbane Bullets	11	6	5	1047	1071
5	Cairns Taipans	11	6	5	1014	1062
6	Perth Wildcats	10	5	5	943	979
7	Adelaide 36ers	11	5	6	1001	1031
8	SE Melbourne Phoenix	10	4	6	969	943
9	New Zealand Breakers	11	4	7	996	1000
10	Illawarra Hawks	11	3	8	1057	1149

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Melbourne United	Brisbane Bullets
Cairns Taipans	113-97 W	85-107 L
Sydney Kings	105-95 W	78-93 L
Perth Wildcats	102-103 L	109-104 W
Illawarra Hawks	89-91 L	98-81 W
SE Melbourne Phoenix	104-99 W	115-105 W
Adelaide 36ers	96-91 W	96-89 W
Tasmania JackJumpers	82-84 L	85-106 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Brisbane Bullets (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Melbourne United

WLLWWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
02/11	New Zealand Breakers Australia NBL	94-74	W
31/10	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	113-97	W
25/10	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	105-95	W
23/10	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	102-103	L
18/10	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	89-91	L
10/10	SE Melbourne Phoenix Australia NBL	104-99	W
07/10	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	96-91	W
03/10	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	95-107	L
01/10	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	82-84	L
24/09	SE Melbourne Phoenix Australia NBL	86-61	W

Brisbane Bullets

WLLLWLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
04/11	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	109-104	W
01/11	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	96-89	W
29/10	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	85-107	L
24/10	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	98-81	W
21/10	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	85-106	L
15/10	SE Melbourne Phoenix Australia NBL	115-105	W
08/10	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	91-97	L
03/10	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	99-109	L
30/09	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	78-93	L
25/09	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	103-95	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Melbourne United vs Brisbane Bullets?

Our model gives 82% to Melbourne United.

How many points are expected in Melbourne United vs Brisbane Bullets?

The model estimates 187.7 total points (Melbourne United 100.3 · Brisbane Bullets 87.5).