Basketball · Australia NBL · 11/11, 09:30

Prediction: SE Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks

Team pages: SE Melbourne Phoenix · Illawarra Hawks

Prediction summary

Estimated points

202.3Total

SE Melbourne Phoenix105.2

Illawarra Hawks97.1

1X2

72% 28%

SE Melbourne Phoenix Illawarra Hawks

Recent form · 10 last

SE Melbourne Phoenix 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Illawarra Hawks 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

SE Melbourne Phoenix 4–2 Illawarra Hawks (6 last)

SE Melbourne Phoenix113-96Illawarra Hawks
SE Melbourne Phoenix124-113Illawarra Hawks
Illawarra Hawks113-109SE Melbourne Phoenix
SE Melbourne Phoenix116-76Illawarra Hawks
Illawarra Hawks126-96SE Melbourne Phoenix
SE Melbourne Phoenix101-94Illawarra Hawks

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SE Melbourne Phoenix 1456 · Illawarra Hawks 1464

	SE Melbourne Phoenix	Illawarra Hawks
Our model	62%	38%
Market	75%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 202.3 points · Bet365 line 199.5 · +2.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points202.3SE Melbourne Phoenix 105.2 · Illawarra Hawks 97.1

Match keys

SE Melbourne Phoenix is a clear favourite (72% market).
H2H favours SE Melbourne Phoenix: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	SE Melbourne Phoenix	Illawarra Hawks
Points F\|A (Last 10)	96.8 / 97.4	96.6 / 103.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	103.2 / 100	90.6 / 101
Est. result	105	97

Est. total202.3

Line O/U199.5

Diff.2.8

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.28

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-7.5)1.87

2 (+7.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 199.51.91

Under 199.51.91

Diff.: 2.55 · Est. total: 196.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.28▲	Bet365 1.28
2	3.85 → 3.75▼	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 4.8%

Time*	1	2
03:36 +10’	1.27	3.85
04:33 +12’	1.28▲	3.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SE Melbourne Phoenix 4–0–2 Illawarra Hawks

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/10/26 Australia NBL	SE Melbourne Phoenix	113-96	Illawarra Hawks
08/01/26 Australia NBL	SE Melbourne Phoenix	124-113	Illawarra Hawks
04/12/25 Australia NBL	Illawarra Hawks	113-109	SE Melbourne Phoenix
18/10/25 Australia NBL	SE Melbourne Phoenix	116-76	Illawarra Hawks
05/03/25 Australia NBL	Illawarra Hawks	126-96	SE Melbourne Phoenix
02/03/25 Australia NBL	SE Melbourne Phoenix	101-94	Illawarra Hawks

Standings · Australia NBL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Sydney Kings	11	8	3	1089	980
2	Tasmania JackJumpers	11	8	3	1035	985
3	Melbourne United	12	7	5	1181	1091
4	Cairns Taipans	13	7	6	1209	1261
5	Adelaide 36ers	12	6	6	1107	1109
6	Brisbane Bullets	12	6	6	1139	1191
7	Perth Wildcats	11	5	6	1035	1079
8	SE Melbourne Phoenix	11	4	7	1068	1053
9	New Zealand Breakers	12	4	8	1073	1079
10	Illawarra Hawks	13	4	9	1242	1350

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SE Melbourne Phoenix	Illawarra Hawks
Sydney Kings	99-110 L	82-108 L
Tasmania JackJumpers	89-98 L	112-122 L
Adelaide 36ers	108-94 W	78-106 L
Cairns Taipans	115-83 W	107-95 W
Brisbane Bullets	105-115 L	81-98 L
Melbourne United	99-104 L	91-89 W
Perth Wildcats	88-92 L	105-98 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: SE Melbourne Phoenix (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SE Melbourne Phoenix

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
08/11	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	99-110	L
01/11	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	89-98	L
24/10	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	108-94	W
17/10	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	115-83	W
15/10	Brisbane Bullets Australia NBL	105-115	L
10/10	Melbourne United Australia NBL	99-104	L
04/10	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	113-96	W
02/10	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	88-92	L
24/09	Melbourne United Australia NBL	61-86	L
21/09	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	91-96	L

Illawarra Hawks

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
07/11	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	78-106	L
05/11	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	107-95	W
31/10	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	105-98	W
24/10	Brisbane Bullets Australia NBL	81-98	L
22/10	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	82-108	L
18/10	Melbourne United Australia NBL	91-89	W
11/10	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	100-110	L
09/10	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	112-122	L
04/10	SE Melbourne Phoenix Australia NBL	96-113	L
02/10	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	114-92	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SE Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks?

Our model gives 72% to SE Melbourne Phoenix.

How many points are expected in SE Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks?

The model estimates 202.3 total points (SE Melbourne Phoenix 105.2 · Illawarra Hawks 97.1).