Basketball · Australia NBL · 12/11, 09:30

Prediction: Adelaide 36ers vs Melbourne United

Team pages: Adelaide 36ers · Melbourne United

Prediction summary

Estimated points

186.4Total

Adelaide 36ers91.8

Melbourne United94.6

1X2

42% 58%

Adelaide 36ers Melbourne United

Recent form · 10 last

Adelaide 36ers 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Melbourne United 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWLLWWWW

Head-to-head

Adelaide 36ers 4–2 Melbourne United (6 last)

Adelaide 36ers91-96Melbourne United
Melbourne United95-97Adelaide 36ers
Melbourne United76-87Adelaide 36ers
Adelaide 36ers114-105Melbourne United
Melbourne United81-80Adelaide 36ers
Adelaide 36ers100-81Melbourne United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Adelaide 36ers 1518 · Melbourne United 1525

	Adelaide 36ers	Melbourne United
Our model	62%	38%
Market	37%	63%

Estimated total (ours) 186.4 points · Bet365 line 186.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points186.4Adelaide 36ers 91.8 · Melbourne United 94.6

Match keys

H2H favours Adelaide 36ers: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Adelaide 36ers	Melbourne United
Points F\|A (Last 10)	91.3 / 91.6	100 / 93.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	98.2 / 94.2	106.8 / 92.2
Est. result	92	95

Est. total186.4

Line O/U186.5

Diff.0.1

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

12.60

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+4.5)1.89

2 (-4.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 186.51.91

Under 186.51.91

Diff.: 1.6 · Est. total: 188.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
2	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.1%

Time*	1	2
03:41 +5’	2.60	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Adelaide 36ers 4–0–2 Melbourne United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/10/26 Australia NBL	Adelaide 36ers	91-96	Melbourne United
19/09/26 Australia NBL	Melbourne United	95-97	Adelaide 36ers
07/02/26 Australia NBL	Melbourne United	76-87	Adelaide 36ers
12/12/25 Australia NBL	Adelaide 36ers	114-105	Melbourne United
26/10/25 Australia NBL	Melbourne United	81-80	Adelaide 36ers
04/01/25 Australia NBL	Adelaide 36ers	100-81	Melbourne United

Standings · Australia NBL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Sydney Kings	11	8	3	1089	980
2	Tasmania JackJumpers	11	8	3	1035	985
3	Melbourne United	12	7	5	1181	1091
4	Cairns Taipans	13	7	6	1209	1261
5	Adelaide 36ers	12	6	6	1107	1109
6	Brisbane Bullets	12	6	6	1139	1191
7	Perth Wildcats	11	5	6	1035	1079
8	SE Melbourne Phoenix	11	4	7	1068	1053
9	New Zealand Breakers	12	4	8	1073	1079
10	Illawarra Hawks	13	4	9	1242	1350

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Adelaide 36ers	Melbourne United
Illawarra Hawks	106-78 W	89-91 L
Brisbane Bullets	89-96 L	120-92 W
New Zealand Breakers	108-101 W	94-74 W
SE Melbourne Phoenix	94-108 L	104-99 W
Tasmania JackJumpers	94-88 W	82-84 L
Sydney Kings	84-78 W	105-95 W
Cairns Taipans	83-69 W	113-97 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Melbourne United (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Adelaide 36ers

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
07/11	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	106-78	W
01/11	Brisbane Bullets Australia NBL	89-96	L
30/10	New Zealand Breakers Australia NBL	108-101	W
24/10	SE Melbourne Phoenix Australia NBL	94-108	L
16/10	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	94-88	W
11/10	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	84-78	W
07/10	Melbourne United Australia NBL	91-96	L
04/10	New Zealand Breakers Australia NBL	72-88	L
02/10	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	92-114	L
27/09	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	83-69	W

Melbourne United

LLWWLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
07/11	Brisbane Bullets Australia NBL	120-92	W
02/11	New Zealand Breakers Australia NBL	94-74	W
31/10	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	113-97	W
25/10	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	105-95	W
23/10	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	102-103	L
18/10	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	89-91	L
10/10	SE Melbourne Phoenix Australia NBL	104-99	W
07/10	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	96-91	W
03/10	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	95-107	L
01/10	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	82-84	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Adelaide 36ers vs Melbourne United?

Our model gives 58% to Melbourne United.

How many points are expected in Adelaide 36ers vs Melbourne United?

The model estimates 186.4 total points (Adelaide 36ers 91.8 · Melbourne United 94.6).