Basketball · Australia NBL · 13/11, 07:30

Prediction: New Zealand Breakers vs Brisbane Bullets

Team pages: New Zealand Breakers · Brisbane Bullets

Prediction summary

Estimated points

187.3Total

New Zealand Breakers94.9

Brisbane Bullets92.4

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

57% 43%

New Zealand Breakers Brisbane Bullets

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

New Zealand Breakers 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Brisbane Bullets 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWLWWL

Head-to-head

New Zealand Breakers 1–5 Brisbane Bullets (6 last)

Brisbane Bullets88-85New Zealand Breakers
Brisbane Bullets99-85New Zealand Breakers
Brisbane Bullets84-113New Zealand Breakers
New Zealand Breakers83-84Brisbane Bullets
New Zealand Breakers95-104Brisbane Bullets
New Zealand Breakers87-93Brisbane Bullets

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New Zealand Breakers 1476 · Brisbane Bullets 1481

	New Zealand Breakers	Brisbane Bullets
Our model	62%	38%
Market	56%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 187.3 points · Bet365 line 185.5 · +1.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points187.3New Zealand Breakers 94.9 · Brisbane Bullets 92.4

Match keys

H2H favours Brisbane Bullets: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	New Zealand Breakers	Brisbane Bullets
Points F\|A (Last 10)	89.3 / 91	94.8 / 101.1
Points F\|A (Last 5)	85.6 / 93	96 / 100.2
Est. result	95	92

Est. total187.3

Line O/U185.5

Diff.1.8

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.72

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)1.97

Line ⓘ

Over 185.51.91

Under 185.51.91

Diff.: 2.6 · Est. total: 188.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.72 → 1.72	Bet365 1.72
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 4.7%

Time*	1	2
03:33 +13’	1.72	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · New Zealand Breakers 1–0–5 Brisbane Bullets

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/09/26 Australia NBL	Brisbane Bullets	88-85	New Zealand Breakers
22/12/25 Australia NBL	Brisbane Bullets	99-85	New Zealand Breakers
12/11/25 Australia NBL	Brisbane Bullets	84-113	New Zealand Breakers
23/10/25 Australia NBL	New Zealand Breakers	83-84	Brisbane Bullets
19/09/25 Australia NBL	New Zealand Breakers	95-104	Brisbane Bullets
24/01/25 Australia NBL	New Zealand Breakers	87-93	Brisbane Bullets

Standings · Australia NBL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Sydney Kings	11	8	3	1089	980
2	Tasmania JackJumpers	11	8	3	1035	985
3	Melbourne United	12	7	5	1181	1091
4	Cairns Taipans	13	7	6	1209	1261
5	Adelaide 36ers	12	6	6	1107	1109
6	Brisbane Bullets	12	6	6	1139	1191
7	Perth Wildcats	11	5	6	1035	1079
8	SE Melbourne Phoenix	11	4	7	1068	1053
9	New Zealand Breakers	12	4	8	1073	1079
10	Illawarra Hawks	13	4	9	1242	1350

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New Zealand Breakers	Brisbane Bullets
Tasmania JackJumpers	77-79 L	85-106 L
Melbourne United	74-94 L	92-120 L
Adelaide 36ers	101-108 L	96-89 W
Cairns Taipans	84-86 L	85-107 L
Sydney Kings	102-101 W	78-93 L
Perth Wildcats	84-100 L	109-104 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 5 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: New Zealand Breakers (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

New Zealand Breakers

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
06/11	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	77-79	L
02/11	Melbourne United Australia NBL	74-94	L
30/10	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	101-108	L
25/10	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	84-86	L
18/10	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	92-98	L
14/10	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	102-101	W
10/10	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	84-100	L
04/10	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	88-72	W
30/09	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	98-75	W
26/09	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	93-97	L

Brisbane Bullets

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
07/11	Melbourne United Australia NBL	92-120	L
04/11	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	109-104	W
01/11	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	96-89	W
29/10	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	85-107	L
24/10	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	98-81	W
21/10	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	85-106	L
15/10	SE Melbourne Phoenix Australia NBL	115-105	W
08/10	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	91-97	L
03/10	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	99-109	L
30/09	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	78-93	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New Zealand Breakers vs Brisbane Bullets?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (New Zealand Breakers 57% · Brisbane Bullets 43%).

How many points are expected in New Zealand Breakers vs Brisbane Bullets?

The model estimates 187.3 total points (New Zealand Breakers 94.9 · Brisbane Bullets 92.4).