Basketball · Australia NBL · 14/11, 09:30

Prediction: Melbourne United vs SE Melbourne Phoenix

Team pages: Melbourne United · SE Melbourne Phoenix

Prediction summary

Estimated points

195.1Total

Melbourne United102.1

SE Melbourne Phoenix93.1

1X2

74% 26%

Melbourne United SE Melbourne Phoenix

Recent form · 10 last

Melbourne United 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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SE Melbourne Phoenix 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWWLLL

Head-to-head

Melbourne United 5–1 SE Melbourne Phoenix (6 last)

SE Melbourne Phoenix99-104Melbourne United
SE Melbourne Phoenix61-86Melbourne United
Melbourne United95-91SE Melbourne Phoenix
SE Melbourne Phoenix111-86Melbourne United
SE Melbourne Phoenix81-92Melbourne United
Melbourne United103-83SE Melbourne Phoenix

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Melbourne United 1540 · SE Melbourne Phoenix 1446

	Melbourne United	SE Melbourne Phoenix
Our model	74%	26%
Market	73%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 195.1 points · Bet365 line 197.5 · -2.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points195.1Melbourne United 102.1 · SE Melbourne Phoenix 93.1

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Melbourne United (rating 1540 vs 1446).
Melbourne United is a clear favourite (74% market).
H2H favours Melbourne United: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Melbourne United	SE Melbourne Phoenix
Points F\|A (Last 10)	101.1 / 95	98.7 / 99.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	105 / 91.8	104.2 / 101
Est. result	102	93

Est. total195.1

Line O/U197.5

Diff.2.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.30

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-7.5)1.91

2 (+7.5)1.91

Line ⓘ

Over 197.51.91

Under 197.51.91

Diff.: 0.2 · Est. total: 197.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 4.7%

Time*	1	2
00:31 +17’	1.30	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Melbourne United 5–0–1 SE Melbourne Phoenix

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/10/26 Australia NBL	SE Melbourne Phoenix	99-104	Melbourne United
24/09/26 Australia NBL	SE Melbourne Phoenix	61-86	Melbourne United
19/02/26 Australia NBL	Melbourne United	95-91	SE Melbourne Phoenix
07/12/25 Australia NBL	SE Melbourne Phoenix	111-86	Melbourne United
08/11/25 Australia NBL	SE Melbourne Phoenix	81-92	Melbourne United
25/09/25 Australia NBL	Melbourne United	103-83	SE Melbourne Phoenix

Standings · Australia NBL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Sydney Kings	11	8	3	1089	980
2	Tasmania JackJumpers	12	8	4	1127	1083
3	Melbourne United	13	7	6	1274	1192
4	Adelaide 36ers	13	7	6	1208	1202
5	Cairns Taipans	13	7	6	1209	1261
6	Perth Wildcats	12	6	6	1133	1171
7	Brisbane Bullets	12	6	6	1139	1191
8	Illawarra Hawks	14	5	9	1362	1460
9	SE Melbourne Phoenix	12	4	8	1178	1173
10	New Zealand Breakers	12	4	8	1073	1079

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Melbourne United	SE Melbourne Phoenix
Adelaide 36ers	93-101 L	108-94 W
Brisbane Bullets	120-92 W	105-115 L
Cairns Taipans	113-97 W	115-83 W
Sydney Kings	105-95 W	99-110 L
Perth Wildcats	102-103 L	88-92 L
Illawarra Hawks	89-91 L	110-120 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Melbourne United (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Melbourne United

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
12/11	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	93-101	L
07/11	Brisbane Bullets Australia NBL	120-92	W
02/11	New Zealand Breakers Australia NBL	94-74	W
31/10	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	113-97	W
25/10	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	105-95	W
23/10	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	102-103	L
18/10	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	89-91	L
10/10	SE Melbourne Phoenix Australia NBL	104-99	W
07/10	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	96-91	W
03/10	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	95-107	L

SE Melbourne Phoenix

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
11/11	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	110-120	L
08/11	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	99-110	L
01/11	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	89-98	L
24/10	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	108-94	W
17/10	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	115-83	W
15/10	Brisbane Bullets Australia NBL	105-115	L
10/10	Melbourne United Australia NBL	99-104	L
04/10	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	113-96	W
02/10	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	88-92	L
24/09	Melbourne United Australia NBL	61-86	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Melbourne United vs SE Melbourne Phoenix?

Our model gives 74% to Melbourne United.

How many points are expected in Melbourne United vs SE Melbourne Phoenix?

The model estimates 195.1 total points (Melbourne United 102.1 · SE Melbourne Phoenix 93.1).