Basketball · Australia NBL · 15/11, 05:00

Prediction: Sydney Kings vs New Zealand Breakers

Team pages: Sydney Kings · New Zealand Breakers

Prediction summary

Estimated points

178.6Total

Sydney Kings94.7

New Zealand Breakers83.9

1X2

78% 22%

Sydney Kings New Zealand Breakers

Recent form · 10 last

Sydney Kings 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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New Zealand Breakers 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sydney Kings 4–2 New Zealand Breakers (6 last)

Sydney Kings101-102New Zealand Breakers
New Zealand Breakers62-103Sydney Kings
New Zealand Breakers95-90Sydney Kings
Sydney Kings79-72New Zealand Breakers
Sydney Kings97-75New Zealand Breakers
New Zealand Breakers84-92Sydney Kings

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sydney Kings 1545 · New Zealand Breakers 1475

	Sydney Kings	New Zealand Breakers
Our model	72%	28%
Market	79%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 178.6 points · Bet365 line 185.5 · -6.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points178.6Sydney Kings 94.7 · New Zealand Breakers 83.9

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sydney Kings (rating 1545 vs 1475).
Sydney Kings is a clear favourite (78% market).
H2H favours Sydney Kings: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Sydney Kings	New Zealand Breakers
Points F\|A (Last 10)	93.9 / 87.4	89.4 / 90.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	91.4 / 89.4	86 / 91.4
Est. result	95	84

Est. total178.6

Line O/U185.5

Diff.6.9

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.20

24.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-9.5)1.91

2 (+9.5)1.91

Line ⓘ

Over 185.51.91

Under 185.51.91

Diff.: 5 · Est. total: 180.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20
2	4.60 → 4.60	Bet365 4.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.1%

Time*	1	2
00:22 +27’	1.20	4.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sydney Kings 4–0–2 New Zealand Breakers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/10/26 Australia NBL	Sydney Kings	101-102	New Zealand Breakers
09/01/26 Australia NBL	New Zealand Breakers	62-103	Sydney Kings
03/12/25 Australia NBL	New Zealand Breakers	95-90	Sydney Kings
09/11/25 Australia NBL	Sydney Kings	79-72	New Zealand Breakers
04/10/25 Australia NBL	Sydney Kings	97-75	New Zealand Breakers
20/12/24 Australia NBL	New Zealand Breakers	84-92	Sydney Kings

Standings · Australia NBL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Sydney Kings	12	8	4	1171	1064
2	Tasmania JackJumpers	12	8	4	1127	1083
3	Cairns Taipans	14	8	6	1293	1343
4	Melbourne United	13	7	6	1274	1192
5	Adelaide 36ers	13	7	6	1208	1202
6	Perth Wildcats	12	6	6	1133	1171
7	Brisbane Bullets	13	6	7	1229	1285
8	New Zealand Breakers	13	5	8	1167	1169
9	Illawarra Hawks	14	5	9	1362	1460
10	SE Melbourne Phoenix	12	4	8	1178	1173

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sydney Kings	New Zealand Breakers
Cairns Taipans	82-84 L	84-86 L
Tasmania JackJumpers	71-68 W	77-79 L
Perth Wildcats	99-91 W	84-100 L
Melbourne United	95-105 L	74-94 L
Adelaide 36ers	78-84 L	101-108 L
Brisbane Bullets	93-78 W	94-90 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Sydney Kings (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sydney Kings

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
13/11	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	82-84	L
08/11	SE Melbourne Phoenix Australia NBL	110-99	W
30/10	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	71-68	W
28/10	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	99-91	W
25/10	Melbourne United Australia NBL	95-105	L
22/10	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	108-82	W
17/10	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	102-81	W
14/10	New Zealand Breakers Australia NBL	101-102	L
11/10	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	78-84	L
30/09	Brisbane Bullets Australia NBL	93-78	W

New Zealand Breakers

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
13/11	Brisbane Bullets Australia NBL	94-90	W
06/11	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	77-79	L
02/11	Melbourne United Australia NBL	74-94	L
30/10	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	101-108	L
25/10	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	84-86	L
18/10	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	92-98	L
14/10	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	102-101	W
10/10	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	84-100	L
04/10	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	88-72	W
30/09	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	98-75	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sydney Kings vs New Zealand Breakers?

Our model gives 78% to Sydney Kings.

How many points are expected in Sydney Kings vs New Zealand Breakers?

The model estimates 178.6 total points (Sydney Kings 94.7 · New Zealand Breakers 83.9).