Basketball · Australia NBL · 25/10, 05:00

Prediction: Cairns Taipans vs New Zealand Breakers

Prediction summary

Estimated points

188.1Total

Cairns Taipans93.9

New Zealand Breakers94.2

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

49% 51%

Cairns Taipans New Zealand Breakers

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Cairns Taipans 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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New Zealand Breakers 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Cairns Taipans 1–5 New Zealand Breakers (6 last)

New Zealand Breakers98-75Cairns Taipans
New Zealand Breakers115-84Cairns Taipans
Cairns Taipans86-104New Zealand Breakers
Cairns Taipans99-95New Zealand Breakers
Cairns Taipans96-102New Zealand Breakers
New Zealand Breakers99-92Cairns Taipans

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cairns Taipans 1476 · New Zealand Breakers 1549

	Cairns Taipans	New Zealand Breakers
Our model	52%	48%
Market	48%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 188.1 points · Bet365 line 188.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points188.1Cairns Taipans 93.9 · New Zealand Breakers 94.2

Match keys

H2H favours New Zealand Breakers: 5-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Cairns Taipans	New Zealand Breakers
Points F\|A (Last 10)	89.3 / 98.4	96.3 / 90.3
Points F\|A (Last 5)	94.4 / 99.8	92.8 / 89.2
Est. result	94	94

Est. total188.1

Line O/U188.5

Diff.0.4

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.97

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.82

2 (-1.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 188.51.91

Under 188.51.91

Diff.: 1.35 · Est. total: 187.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.97 → 1.97	Bet365 1.97
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 4.8%

Time*	1	2
04:37 +12’	1.97	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cairns Taipans 1–0–5 New Zealand Breakers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/09/26 Australia NBL	New Zealand Breakers	98-75	Cairns Taipans
19/02/26 Australia NBL	New Zealand Breakers	115-84	Cairns Taipans
17/01/26 Australia NBL	Cairns Taipans	86-104	New Zealand Breakers
19/12/25 Australia NBL	Cairns Taipans	99-95	New Zealand Breakers
22/11/25 Australia NBL	Cairns Taipans	96-102	New Zealand Breakers
01/02/25 Australia NBL	New Zealand Breakers	99-92	Cairns Taipans

Standings · Australia NBL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA
1	Tasmania JackJumpers	7	5	2	684	663
2	Sydney Kings	6	4	2	606	535
3	Perth Wildcats	6	4	2	547	564
4	New Zealand Breakers	8	4	4	737	712
5	Brisbane Bullets	6	3	3	574	584
6	Adelaide 36ers	8	4	4	710	726
7	Cairns Taipans	8	4	4	724	780
8	Melbourne United	7	3	4	647	630
9	SE Melbourne Phoenix	8	3	5	772	751
10	Illawarra Hawks	8	2	6	789	845

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cairns Taipans	New Zealand Breakers
Illawarra Hawks	110-100 W	95-81 W
Brisbane Bullets	97-91 W	85-88 L
Adelaide 36ers	69-83 L	88-72 W
Tasmania JackJumpers	93-87 W	92-98 L
Sydney Kings	90-111 L	102-101 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: New Zealand Breakers (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cairns Taipans

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
17/10	SE Melbourne Phoenix Australia NBL	83-115	L
11/10	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	110-100	W
08/10	Brisbane Bullets Australia NBL	97-91	W
03/10	Melbourne United Australia NBL	107-95	W
30/09	New Zealand Breakers Australia NBL	75-98	L
27/09	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	69-83	L
23/09	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	93-87	W
20/09	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	90-111	L
19/02	New Zealand Breakers Australia NBL	84-115	L
12/02	Melbourne United Australia NBL	85-89	L

New Zealand Breakers

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
18/10	Tasmania JackJumpers Australia NBL	92-98	L
14/10	Sydney Kings Australia NBL	102-101	W
10/10	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	84-100	L
04/10	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	88-72	W
30/09	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	98-75	W
26/09	Perth Wildcats Australia NBL	93-97	L
22/09	Brisbane Bullets Australia NBL	85-88	L
20/09	Illawarra Hawks Australia NBL	95-81	W
22/02	Adelaide 36ers Australia NBL	111-107	W
19/02	Cairns Taipans Australia NBL	115-84	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cairns Taipans vs New Zealand Breakers?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Cairns Taipans 49% · New Zealand Breakers 51%).

How many points are expected in Cairns Taipans vs New Zealand Breakers?

The model estimates 188.1 total points (Cairns Taipans 93.9 · New Zealand Breakers 94.2).