Tennis · ATP Stockholm · 12/11, 20:00
Prediction: Lorenzo Musetti vs Ugo Humbert
Team pages: Lorenzo Musetti · Ugo Humbert
Prediction summary
Winner
Lorenzo Musetti
Ugo Humbert
Estimated games
24Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Lorenzo Musetti
7-3 (W-L)
Ugo Humbert
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Musetti 1584 · Ugo Humbert 1487
| Lorenzo Musetti | Ugo Humbert | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lorenzo Musetti (rating 1584 vs 1487).
- Lorenzo Musetti is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Lorenzo Musetti | Ugo Humbert | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.6 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.3-11.4 | 12.7-12.7 |
| Aces | 4.9 | 7.2 |
| Double faults | 0.7 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 75.9% | 75.6% |
| Break % | 35.3% | 36.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.5
Over 22.5: 60% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 40% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Musetti
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Toby Samuel ATP Stockholm · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/11 | Luca Van Assche ATP Paris · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 04/11 | Alexander Zverev ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/11 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 29/10 | Arthur Fery ATP Vienna · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 28/10 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 25/10 | Taylor Fritz ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/10 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 23/10 | Luca Van Assche ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 21/10 | Moise Kouame ATP Lyon · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Ugo Humbert
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Borna Gojo ATP Stockholm · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/11 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Stockholm · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/11 | Matteo Berrettini ATP Paris · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 02/11 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Paris · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 28/10 | Novak Djokovic ATP Basel · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 20/10 | Corentin Moutet ATP Lyon · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 09/10 | Arthur Gea ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 03/10 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 01/10 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/08 | Michael Zheng ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Musetti vs Ugo Humbert?
Our model gives 65% to Lorenzo Musetti, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.