Tennis · ATP Stockholm · 12/11, 13:00
Prediction: Alex Michelsen vs Alejandro Tabilo
Team pages: Alex Michelsen · Alejandro Tabilo
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Michelsen
Alejandro Tabilo
Estimated games
23.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Michelsen
5-5 (W-L)
Alejandro Tabilo
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alex Michelsen
1–0
Alejandro Tabilo
(1 last)
- 23 Mar2-1 15-13W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Michelsen 1545 · Alejandro Tabilo 1446
| Alex Michelsen | Alejandro Tabilo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 76% | 24% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alex Michelsen (rating 1545 vs 1446).
- Alex Michelsen is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Alex Michelsen 1–0 Alejandro Tabilo (1).
Statistics
| Alex Michelsen | Alejandro Tabilo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 33% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-10.1 | 12.7-14.6 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 6.3 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 71.7% | 70% |
| Break % | 39.5% | 35.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.3
Over 22.5: 59% · 2.00
Under 22.5: 41% · 1.72
H2H · Alex Michelsen 1 – 0 Alejandro Tabilo (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex Michelsen 1–0 Alejandro Tabilo
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/26 ATP Miami | 2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Michelsen
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Stockholm · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/11 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Stockholm · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/11 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Paris · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/11 | Jiri Lehecka ATP Paris · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 29/10 | Arthur Fils ATP Basel · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 27/10 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Basel · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 23/10 | Arthur Fils ATP Brussels · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/10 | David Goffin ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/10 | Andrea Guerrieri ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 10/10 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Alejandro Tabilo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Stockholm · Hard |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 02/11 | Rafael Jodar ATP Paris · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/10 | Rafael Jodar ATP Basel · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/10 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 03/10 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 30/09 | Tommy Paul ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 25/09 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Daniel Merida Aguilar Davis Cup |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 06/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 03/09 | Alexei Popyrin US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-20 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Michelsen vs Alejandro Tabilo?
Our model gives 71% to Alex Michelsen, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.