Tennis · ATP Stockholm · 11/11, 12:00
Prediction: Alexander Shevchenko vs Casper Ruud
Team pages: Alexander Shevchenko · Casper Ruud
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Shevchenko
Casper Ruud
Estimated games
21.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Shevchenko
6-4 (W-L)
Casper Ruud
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alexander Shevchenko
0–3
Casper Ruud
(3 last)
- 07 Mar0-2 7-13L
- 19 Dec0-1 4-6L
- 20 Jul0-2 6-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Shevchenko 1521 · Casper Ruud 1573
| Alexander Shevchenko | Casper Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Casper Ruud (rating 1521 vs 1573).
- Casper Ruud dominates on serve: 9.9 aces and 48.9% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Alexander Shevchenko 0–3 Casper Ruud (3).
Statistics
| Alexander Shevchenko | Casper Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 1.6-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-9.1 | 12.6-10 |
| Aces | 4 | 9.9 |
| Double faults | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 72.5% | 75.3% |
| Break % | 48.1% | 48.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2 · Bet365 line 22.5 · -1.3
Over 22.5: 41% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 59% · 1.80
H2H · Alexander Shevchenko 0 – 3 Casper Ruud (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alexander Shevchenko 0–3 Casper Ruud
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 ATP Indian Wells | 0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 19/12/24 World Tennis League | 0-1 | 4-6 | L |
| 20/07/23 ATP Bastad | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Shevchenko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Stockholm · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/11 | Jacob Fearnley ATP Stockholm · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/11 | Viktor Durasovic ATP Stockholm · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/11 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Bratislava · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 18/10 | Stefanos Sakellaridis ATP Almaty · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 17/10 | Daniil Glinka ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 16/10 | Mattia Bellucci Challenger Jinan · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/10 | Jay Friend Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/10 | Miomir Kecmanovic Challenger Jinan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/10 | Yoshihito Nishioka ATP Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Casper Ruud
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Paris · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 06/11 | Nuno Borges ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/11 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/11 | Rafael Jodar ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/11 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Paris · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/10 | Nuno Borges ATP Basel · Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 26/10 | Dominic Stephan Stricker ATP Basel · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 16/10 | Rafael Jodar ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 12/10 | Learner Tien ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/10 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Shevchenko vs Casper Ruud?
Our model gives 69% to Casper Ruud, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.