Tennis · ATP Stockholm · 12/11, 12:00
Prediction: Lorenzo Sonego vs Alejandro Tabilo
Team pages: Lorenzo Sonego · Alejandro Tabilo
Prediction summary
Winner
Lorenzo Sonego
Alejandro Tabilo
Estimated games
24.6Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Lorenzo Sonego
5-5 (W-L)
Alejandro Tabilo
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Lorenzo Sonego
1–1
Alejandro Tabilo
(2 last)
- 08 Aug0-2 6-12L
- 24 Aug2-0 13-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Sonego 1555 · Alejandro Tabilo 1447
| Lorenzo Sonego | Alejandro Tabilo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 57% | 43% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lorenzo Sonego (rating 1555 vs 1447).
- Lorenzo Sonego is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Lorenzo Sonego | Alejandro Tabilo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 33% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 1.1-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.5-12.9 | 13.1-14.3 |
| Aces | 9.5 | 6.3 |
| Double faults | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 78.1% | 70.3% |
| Break % | 36.2% | 35.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.6 · Bet365 line 23.5 · +1.1
Over 23.5: 58% · 2.00
Under 23.5: 42% · 1.72
H2H · Lorenzo Sonego 1 – 1 Alejandro Tabilo (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lorenzo Sonego 1–1 Alejandro Tabilo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/24 ATP Montreal | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/08/22 ATP Winston-Salem | 2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Sonego
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Quentin Halys ATP Stockholm · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/11 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre ATP Stockholm · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/11 | Olle Wallin ATP Stockholm · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/11 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Paris · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/11 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Paris · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 31/10 | Jaume Munar ATP Paris · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 25/10 | Jacob Fearnley ATP Vienna · Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 24/10 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 19/10 | Moise Kouame ATP Lyon · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/10 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
Alejandro Tabilo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | Rafael Jodar ATP Paris · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/10 | Rafael Jodar ATP Basel · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 10/10 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 03/10 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Tokyo · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 30/09 | Tommy Paul ATP Tokyo · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 25/09 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/09 | Daniel Merida Aguilar Davis Cup |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 06/09 | Alexander Zverev US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 03/09 | Alexei Popyrin US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 22-20 | W |
| 31/08 | Yannick Hanfmann US Open · Hard |
3-1 | 24-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Sonego vs Alejandro Tabilo?
Our model gives 61% to Lorenzo Sonego, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.