Tennis · M25 San Gregorio · 11/11, 09:30
Prediction: Lorenzo Berto vs Gianmarco Ferrari
Team pages: Lorenzo Berto · Gianmarco Ferrari
Prediction summary
Winner
Lorenzo Berto
Gianmarco Ferrari
Estimated games
20.7
Recent form · 10 last
Lorenzo Berto
4-6 (W-L)
Gianmarco Ferrari
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Berto 1539 · Gianmarco Ferrari 1539
| Lorenzo Berto | Gianmarco Ferrari | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 23% | 77% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Lorenzo Berto | Gianmarco Ferrari | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.2-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.9-10.1 | 10.3-9.6 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 3.1 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 63.3% | 67.4% |
| Break % | 68.9% | 51% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Berto
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | Leonardo Angeloni M25 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-1 | 12-11 | W |
| 03/11 | Gabriele Crivellaro M15 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 15/10 | Alexander Weis M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/10 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 11-8 | W |
| 13/10 | Daniele Rapagnetta M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/10 | Arthur Bellegy M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 06/10 | Manuel Mazza M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/09 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 21/09 | Dimitris Sakellaridis Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 20/09 | Lorenzo Bocchi Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
Gianmarco Ferrari
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Michele Mecarelli M15 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/11 | Andrea De Marchi M15 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 05/11 | Jacopo Berrettini M15 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 04/11 | Antonio Marigliano M15 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 06/10 | Stefano D'Agostino M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-1 | 12-9 | W |
| 27/09 | Filippo Moroni Challenger Bari · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 24/09 | Eric Vanshelboim M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 23/09 | Samuele Seghetti M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/09 | Giannicola Misasi M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 14/09 | Izan Almazan Valiente Challenger Biella · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Berto vs Gianmarco Ferrari?
Our model gives 65% to Gianmarco Ferrari, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.