Tennis · Challenger Costa do Sauipe · 08/11, 20:00
Prediction: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Team pages: Thiago Seyboth Wild · Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Prediction summary
Winner
Thiago Seyboth Wild
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Thiago Seyboth Wild
9-1 (W-L)
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Thiago Seyboth Wild
2–2
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
(4 last)
- 26 Feb1-2 8-13L
- 20 Jan0-2 10-13L
- 29 Oct2-1 16-13W
- 29 Apr2-0 13-9W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Thiago Seyboth Wild 1647 · Camilo Ugo Carabelli 1569
| Thiago Seyboth Wild | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Thiago Seyboth Wild (rating 1647 vs 1569).
- Thiago Seyboth Wild dominates on serve: 7.5 aces and 48.3% break avg.
- Thiago Seyboth Wild is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Thiago Seyboth Wild | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 90% (10) | 100% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.3 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-8.4 | 11.9-11 |
| Aces | 7.5 | 4.8 |
| Double faults | 3 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 78% | 73.6% |
| Break % | 48.3% | 40.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
H2H · Thiago Seyboth Wild 2 – 2 Camilo Ugo Carabelli (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Thiago Seyboth Wild 2–2 Camilo Ugo Carabelli
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/02/23 ATP Santiago | 1-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 20/01/23 Challenger Piracicaba | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 29/10/18 Challenger Guayaquil | 2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 29/04/18 ITF Brazil F1 | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Thiago Seyboth Wild
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Costa do Sauipe · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/11 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Costa do Sauipe · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/11 | Franco Roncadelli Challenger Costa do Sauipe · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 04/11 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Costa do Sauipe · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/10 | Hugo Dellien Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 17/10 | Francisco Comesana Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 17/10 | Nicolas Kicker Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 15/10 | Carlos Maria Zarate Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/10 | Mateus Alves Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 11/10 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Antofagasta · Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Gonzalo Bueno Challenger Costa do Sauipe · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/11 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo Challenger Costa do Sauipe · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/11 | Igor Marcondes Challenger Costa do Sauipe · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/11 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Costa do Sauipe · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 27/10 | Federico Coria Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 10/10 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 08/10 | Ilia Simakin ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 28/09 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Tokyo · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Federico Cina ATP Chengdu · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/09 | Jan-Lennard Struff US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli?
Our model gives 57% to Thiago Seyboth Wild, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.