Tennis · M15 San Gregorio · 08/11, 11:00
Prediction: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Michele Mecarelli
Team pages: Gianmarco Ferrari · Michele Mecarelli
Prediction summary
Winner
Gianmarco Ferrari
Michele Mecarelli
Estimated games
20.3
Recent form · 10 last
Gianmarco Ferrari
8-2 (W-L)
Michele Mecarelli
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Gianmarco Ferrari
3–0
Michele Mecarelli
(3 last)
- 27 May2-1 16-13W
- 06 Nov2-1 16-12W
- 14 Oct2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gianmarco Ferrari 1571 · Michele Mecarelli 1543
| Gianmarco Ferrari | Michele Mecarelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Gianmarco Ferrari 3–0 Michele Mecarelli (3).
Statistics
| Gianmarco Ferrari | Michele Mecarelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 70% (10) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.8 | 1.4-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11-8.6 | 9.4-7.8 |
| Aces | 3.6 | 1.2 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 69.8% | 63% |
| Break % | 54.2% | 42.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.3
H2H · Gianmarco Ferrari 3 – 0 Michele Mecarelli (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gianmarco Ferrari 3–0 Michele Mecarelli
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/26 M25 Grado | 2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 06/11/25 ITF M15 San Gregorio di Catania | 2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 14/10/25 M25 Santa Margherita | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gianmarco Ferrari
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Andrea De Marchi M15 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 05/11 | Jacopo Berrettini M15 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 04/11 | Antonio Marigliano M15 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 06/10 | Stefano D'Agostino M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-1 | 12-9 | W |
| 27/09 | Filippo Moroni Challenger Bari · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 24/09 | Eric Vanshelboim M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 23/09 | Samuele Seghetti M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/09 | Giannicola Misasi M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 14/09 | Izan Almazan Valiente Challenger Biella · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Cesare Carpano Challenger Biella · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Michele Mecarelli
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Stepan Baum M15 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/11 | Simone Massucco M15 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 05/11 | Daniele Rapagnetta M15 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 8-4 | W |
| 04/11 | Vlad Cristian Breazu M15 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 20/10 | Branko Djuric M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Jonas Forejtek M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Edoardo Cherie Ligniere M15 Telavi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 28/09 | Aleksandre Shvangiradze M15 Telavi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/09 | Dmitry Popko M15 Telavi · ~Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Edoardo Cherie Ligniere M15 Telavi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gianmarco Ferrari vs Michele Mecarelli?
Our model gives 58% to Gianmarco Ferrari, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.