Tennis · M15 San Gregorio · 06/11, 11:30
Prediction: John Sperle vs Stepan Baum
Team pages: John Sperle · Stepan Baum
Prediction summary
Winner
John Sperle
Stepan Baum
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
John Sperle
6-4 (W-L)
Stepan Baum
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
John Sperle
1–0
Stepan Baum
(1 last)
- 29 Aug2-0 12-3W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · John Sperle 1536 · Stepan Baum 1588
| John Sperle | Stepan Baum | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stepan Baum (rating 1536 vs 1588).
- Stepan Baum is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: John Sperle 1–0 Stepan Baum (1).
Statistics
| John Sperle | Stepan Baum | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Clay | 63% (8) | 100% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.8-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-10.2 | 12.5-7.8 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 65.9% | 70.9% |
| Break % | 40.1% | 46.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
H2H · John Sperle 1 – 0 Stepan Baum (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · John Sperle 1–0 Stepan Baum
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/26 M15 Pecs | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
John Sperle
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | Antonio Caruso M15 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 04/11 | Andrea Fiorentini M15 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 11/10 | Alex Marti Pujolras Challenger Catania · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 08/10 | Vlad Cristian Breazu M15 Burgas |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 07/10 | Matthias Ujvary M15 Burgas |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 29/09 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Bari · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 28/09 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Bari · Clay |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 27/09 | Giuseppe La Vela Challenger Bari · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/09 | Jay Clarke Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 20/09 | Sergi Fita Juan Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Stepan Baum
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | Giuseppe La Vela M15 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/11 | Alessandro Battiston M15 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 27/09 | Sebastian Dominko M25 Pardubice |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/09 | Lukas Pokorny M25 Pardubice |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 26/09 | Matyas Cerny M25 Pardubice |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/09 | Sebastian Sorger M25 Pardubice |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 22/09 | Martin Soukal M25 Pardubice |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/09 | Dominik Recek UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Thiago Pernas UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/09 | Karim Al-Amin UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in John Sperle vs Stepan Baum?
Our model gives 53% to John Sperle, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.