Tennis · M15 San Gregorio · 07/11, 13:30
Prediction: Michele Mecarelli vs Stepan Baum
Team pages: Michele Mecarelli · Stepan Baum
Prediction summary
Winner
Michele Mecarelli
Stepan Baum
Estimated games
20
Recent form · 10 last
Michele Mecarelli
6-4 (W-L)
Stepan Baum
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Michele Mecarelli 1544 · Stepan Baum 1597
| Michele Mecarelli | Stepan Baum | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stepan Baum (rating 1544 vs 1597).
Statistics
| Michele Mecarelli | Stepan Baum | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 90% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (5) | 100% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.7 | 1.8-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.8-8.4 | 12.1-7.4 |
| Aces | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 64.7% | 72.1% |
| Break % | 40.9% | 47% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Michele Mecarelli
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11 | Simone Massucco M15 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 05/11 | Daniele Rapagnetta M15 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 8-4 | W |
| 04/11 | Vlad Cristian Breazu M15 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 20/10 | Branko Djuric M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 13/10 | Jonas Forejtek M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Edoardo Cherie Ligniere M15 Telavi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 28/09 | Aleksandre Shvangiradze M15 Telavi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/09 | Dmitry Popko M15 Telavi · ~Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 25/09 | Edoardo Cherie Ligniere M15 Telavi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/09 | Ruslan Tiukaev M15 Telavi · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
Stepan Baum
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11 | John Sperle M15 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/11 | Giuseppe La Vela M15 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/11 | Alessandro Battiston M15 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 27/09 | Sebastian Dominko M25 Pardubice |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/09 | Lukas Pokorny M25 Pardubice |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 26/09 | Matyas Cerny M25 Pardubice |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/09 | Sebastian Sorger M25 Pardubice |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 22/09 | Martin Soukal M25 Pardubice |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/09 | Dominik Recek UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Thiago Pernas UTR Pro Match Series · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Michele Mecarelli vs Stepan Baum?
Our model gives 55% to Stepan Baum, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.