Tennis · M15 San Gregorio · 05/11, 13:00
Prediction: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Jacopo Berrettini
Team pages: Gianmarco Ferrari
Prediction summary
Winner
Gianmarco Ferrari
Jacopo Berrettini
Estimated games
20.9
Recent form · 10 last
Gianmarco Ferrari
7-3 (W-L)
Jacopo Berrettini
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Gianmarco Ferrari
0–1
Jacopo Berrettini
(1 last)
- 03 Aug0-2 4-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gianmarco Ferrari 1530 · Jacopo Berrettini 1418
| Gianmarco Ferrari | Jacopo Berrettini | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 34% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gianmarco Ferrari (rating 1530 vs 1418).
- Gianmarco Ferrari is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Gianmarco Ferrari 0–1 Jacopo Berrettini (1).
- Note: Jacopo Berrettini makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Gianmarco Ferrari | Jacopo Berrettini | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 20% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1 | 0.7-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-9.5 | 8.4-12.2 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 2.4 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 4.6 |
| 1st serve % | 67.8% | 63.2% |
| Break % | 47.6% | 36.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
H2H · Gianmarco Ferrari 0 – 1 Jacopo Berrettini (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gianmarco Ferrari 0–1 Jacopo Berrettini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/24 M25 Bolzano | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gianmarco Ferrari
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11 | Antonio Marigliano M15 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 06/10 | Stefano D'Agostino M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-1 | 12-9 | W |
| 27/09 | Filippo Moroni Challenger Bari · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 24/09 | Eric Vanshelboim M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 23/09 | Samuele Seghetti M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/09 | Giannicola Misasi M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 14/09 | Izan Almazan Valiente Challenger Biella · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 13/09 | Cesare Carpano Challenger Biella · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 08/09 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Genoa · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/09 | Andrey Chepelev Challenger Genoa · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Jacopo Berrettini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11 | Raffaele Ciurnelli M15 San Gregorio · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 02/04 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Barletta · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 23/03 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Split · Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 10/03 | Tom Gentzsch Challenger Hersonissos · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 02/03 | Alex Rybakov Challenger Hersonissos · Hard |
1-2 | 14-13 | L |
| 24/02 | Mark Lajal Challenger St Brieuc · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 11/02 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz Challenger Tenerife · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/02 | Jacopo Vasami Challenger Tenerife · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/02 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Tenerife · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/01 | Michael Vrbensky Challenger Oeiras Qual · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gianmarco Ferrari vs Jacopo Berrettini?
Our model gives 59% to Gianmarco Ferrari, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.