Tennis · ATP Stockholm · 08/11, 13:30
Prediction: Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel
Team pages: Adrian Mannarino · Toby Samuel
Prediction summary
Winner
Adrian Mannarino
Toby Samuel
Estimated games
22.9Bet365 line 24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Adrian Mannarino
6-3 (W-L)
Toby Samuel
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adrian Mannarino 1577 · Toby Samuel 1499
| Adrian Mannarino | Toby Samuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 49% | 51% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Adrian Mannarino (rating 1577 vs 1499).
Statistics
| Adrian Mannarino | Toby Samuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-11.6 | 11-11.1 |
| Aces | 4.9 | 5.6 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 71.7% | 71.9% |
| Break % | 39.3% | 32.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9 · Bet365 line 24.5 · -1.6
Over 24.5: 39% · 1.83
Under 24.5: 61% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adrian Mannarino
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Jan Simonsson ATP Stockholm · Hard |
1-0 | 11-6 | W |
| 31/10 | Nuno Borges ATP Paris · Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 30/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Vienna · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/10 | Jakub Mensik ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/10 | Ignacio Buse ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 25/10 | Alex Molcan ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/10 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/10 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Almaty · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 21/10 | Andrey Rublev ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 19/10 | Aleksandar Vukic ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
Toby Samuel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Karl Friberg ATP Stockholm · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 05/11 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Bratislava · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 04/11 | Lukas Pokorny Challenger Bratislava · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 29/10 | Clement Tabur Challenger Brest · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 28/10 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Brest · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/10 | Zizou Bergs ATP Brussels · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/10 | Hynek Barton Challenger Villena · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/10 | Jerome Kym Challenger Porto · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 29/09 | Mackenzie McDonald Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 19/09 | Andy Andrade Davis Cup |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adrian Mannarino vs Toby Samuel?
Our model gives 54% to Adrian Mannarino, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.