Tennis · ATP Stockholm · 07/11, 15:30
Prediction: Jacob Fearnley vs Arthur Nagel
Team pages: Jacob Fearnley · Arthur Nagel
Prediction summary
Winner
Jacob Fearnley
Arthur Nagel
Estimated games
21.6Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jacob Fearnley
8-2 (W-L)
Arthur Nagel
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jacob Fearnley 1583 · Arthur Nagel 1588
| Jacob Fearnley | Arthur Nagel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 86% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Arthur Nagel dominates on serve: 7.3 aces and 45.6% break avg.
Statistics
| Jacob Fearnley | Arthur Nagel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.6 | 1.8-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-8 | 13.6-10.2 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 7.3 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 73.7% | 78.5% |
| Break % | 50.4% | 45.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +1.1
Over 20.5: 58% · 2.00
Under 20.5: 42% · 1.72
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jacob Fearnley
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 24/10 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 21/10 | Clement Chidekh ATP Brussels · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 20/10 | Hugo Gaston ATP Brussels · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/10 | Damir Dzumhur Challenger Olbia · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/10 | Luca Nardi Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/10 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/10 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/10 | George Loffhagen Challenger Olbia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/09 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Porto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Arthur Nagel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Philip Henning M25 Sarreguemines |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 24/10 | Maximilian Marterer M25 Sarreguemines |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/10 | Calvin Mueller M25 Sarreguemines |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 22/10 | Matt Ponchet M25 Sarreguemines |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 21/10 | Aaron Gabet M25 Sarreguemines |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 11/10 | Loann Massard Challenger Roanne · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 26/09 | Flynn Thomas M15 Forbach |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 25/09 | Timeo Trufelli M15 Forbach |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 24/09 | Paul Theate M15 Forbach |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/09 | Remy Dugardin M15 Forbach |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jacob Fearnley vs Arthur Nagel?
Our model gives 70% to Jacob Fearnley, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.