Tennis · ATP Stockholm · 07/11, 11:00
Prediction: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Francesco Passaro
Team pages: Nikoloz Basilashvili · Francesco Passaro
Prediction summary
Winner
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Francesco Passaro
Estimated games
22.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Nikoloz Basilashvili
8-2 (W-L)
Francesco Passaro
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Nikoloz Basilashvili
1–0
Francesco Passaro
(1 last)
- 09 Jan2-0 12-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nikoloz Basilashvili 1572 · Francesco Passaro 1641
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | Francesco Passaro | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Francesco Passaro (rating 1572 vs 1641).
- Nikoloz Basilashvili dominates on serve: 8.7 aces and 48.7% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Nikoloz Basilashvili 1–0 Francesco Passaro (1).
Statistics
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | Francesco Passaro | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 100% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.6 | 2-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-10.2 | 14.5-9.9 |
| Aces | 8.7 | 3.5 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 80.3% | 79.6% |
| Break % | 48.7% | 46% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 52% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 48% · 1.83
H2H · Nikoloz Basilashvili 1 – 0 Francesco Passaro (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nikoloz Basilashvili 1–0 Francesco Passaro
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/01/25 Australian Open | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nikoloz Basilashvili
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia ATP Vienna · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 28/10 | Jurij Rodionov ATP Vienna · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 25/10 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Almaty · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 24/10 | Stefanos Tsitsipas ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 23/10 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/10 | Facundo Diaz Acosta ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/10 | Marin Cilic ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 18/10 | Adam Walton ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 17/10 | Taro Daniel ATP Almaty · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 06/10 | Liam Draxl ATP Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
Francesco Passaro
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10 | Gastao Elias Challenger Lisbon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/10 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 17/10 | Matej Dodig Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 16/10 | Marco Trungelliti Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-1 | 16-17 | W |
| 15/10 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 14/10 | Tiago Torres Challenger Maia · Clay |
2-0 | 11-4 | W |
| 11/10 | Jonas Forejtek Challenger Palermo · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 10/10 | Yanaki Milev Challenger Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/10 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Palermo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/10 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Palermo · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Francesco Passaro?
Our model gives 54% to Nikoloz Basilashvili, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.