Tennis · Challenger Taipei · 05/11, 04:00
Prediction: Carl Emil Overbeck vs Kasidit Samrej
Team pages: Carl Emil Overbeck · Kasidit Samrej
Prediction summary
Winner
Carl Emil Overbeck
Kasidit Samrej
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Carl Emil Overbeck
6-4 (W-L)
Kasidit Samrej
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carl Emil Overbeck 1495 · Kasidit Samrej 1505
| Carl Emil Overbeck | Kasidit Samrej | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Kasidit Samrej makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Carl Emil Overbeck | Kasidit Samrej | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (6) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-0.9 | 1.1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-10.5 | 11.7-11.5 |
| Aces | 6.3 | 6 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 71.2% | 78.1% |
| Break % | 35.9% | 23.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carl Emil Overbeck
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 27/10 | Yaroslav Demin Challenger Ningbo · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 30/09 | Hugo Grenier Challenger Porto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/09 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Luca Potenza Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/08 | Ryan Peniston Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/08 | Marcello Serafini M25 Fano |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 07/08 | Leonardo Primucci M25 Fano |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/08 | Stefano D'Agostino M25 Fano |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 05/08 | Gabriele Maria Noce M25 Fano |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Kasidit Samrej
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | James McCabe Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/11 | Omar Jasika Challenger Taipei · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 01/11 | Koki Matsuda Challenger Taipei · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/10 | Rei Sakamoto Challenger Seoul · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/10 | Coleman Wong Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 20/10 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 19/10 | Yaroslav Demin Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 18/10 | Naoya Honda Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 08/10 | Fajing Sun Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/10 | Enzo Aguiard Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carl Emil Overbeck vs Kasidit Samrej?
Our model gives 54% to Carl Emil Overbeck, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.